ASIA: Vietnam CPI Rises as Trade Surplus Jumps
Feb-06 02:13
- Vietnam’s January CPI YoY jumped to 3.63% from 2.94% in December, and significantly above the market expectations of 3.10%.
- A recent BBG survey of market observers saw expectations for inflation in 2025 at 3.50%, down from 3.70% prior.
- With GDP forecast to rise +6.7% YoY in 2025, the CPI result poses interesting challenges for the economy and its ability not to overheat.
- The trade surplus data out January shows the Trade Balance jumping to $3.03bn, up from $524m in December.
- Exports declined -4.3%, following December’s expansion of +12.8% and below market expectations for a rise of +3.3%.
- Imports too declined markedly by -2.6%, from +19.2% in December.
- Industrial Production too was weak rising just +0.6% in January, from +8.8% in December.
- The bright spot was retail sales jumping +9.5%, from +9.3% prior.
- The Lunar New Year holidays were earlier than normal this year, and are the likely source that disrupted the results.
- Market observers expect very little from the State Bank of Vietnam in 2025, with rates expected to stay steady at 4.50%.
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AUSTRALIA: VIEW: Westpac Forecasting Q4 CPI 6-Monthly Rate To Fall Into Band
Jan-07 02:12
Westpac is forecasting the November headline CPI to rise 0.4% m/m and 2.2% y/y up from 2.1%, in line with consensus. This release will be important as it includes updates for some services components that are only done once a quarter. Currently it is projecting a 0.2% q/q & 2.4% y/y rise in Q4 CPI with the trimmed mean posting 0.6% q/q and 3.4% y/y, in line with the RBA, but the 2-quarter annualised rate moderating to 2.9% from 3.3%.
- Westpac notes that “with such a mix of rebates, it is not clear how much of the various rebates remain unused in November, in particular, the $1,000 Qld rebate. Therefore, we don’t have a good way to estimate what the possible lift in electricity prices could be in November and so have pencilled in a 2% increase.”
- Westpac estimates that state & federal government electricity rebates will detract 0.35pp from Q4 CPI, which should be offset by increases in holiday-related prices and alcohol & tobacco. It expects headline inflation to trough at 1.9% in Q2 2025.
- Housing is another area to monitor. “Due to the increase in government assistance, rents rose just 0.1% in September and fell –0.3% in October, while the ABS noted that rents would have lifted 0.5% in September and October had it not been for the increase in assistance. We have pencilled in a 0.5% increase in rents in November.”
- “Dwelling prices fell –0.1% in September and rose just 0.1% in October. We suspect that recent changes to the support offered to first home buyers could have suppressed dwelling prices as they are reported in the CPI.”
AUD: A$ Rises As APAC Equities Strengthen
Jan-07 02:08
Aussie is generally stronger versus other majors during today’s APAC trading and seems to be driven by regional equity trends. AUDUSD is up 0.1% to around 0.6252, after an intraday high of 0.6254 which followed a low of 0.6237. The US dollar is range trading after Monday’s 0.6% drop.
- AUDUSD looked through the weak November building approvals print which saw the total number fall 3.6% m/m after rising 5.2%.
- The yen is underperforming today leaving AUDJPY 0.4% higher at 98.89, close to the intraday high. AUDNZD is little changed at 1.1066 after a peak of 1.1073. AUDEUR is up 0.2% to 0.6019 and AUDGBP +0.1% to 0.4992 after approaching but not breaching 0.5000.
- Equities are generally stronger with the ASX up 0.2% and CSI 300 +0.2% but the S&P e-mini is flat and Hang Seng down 0.3%. Oil prices are continuing to trend moderately lower with WTI -0.2% to $73.40/bbl. Copper is down slightly and iron ore is lower at around $97/t.
- Later the Fed’s Barkin speaks and US November trade, JOLTS job openings, December services ISM and preliminary December euro area CPI and November unemployment rate are released.
AUSTRALIA DATA: Australia Nov Total Dwellings Approved -3.6%
Jan-07 01:34
The November 2024 seasonally adjusted estimate:
- Total dwellings approved fell 3.6%, to 14,998.
- Private sector houses fell 1.7%, to 9,028, while private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 10.8%, to 5,285.
- The value of total residential building fell 0.5%, to $8.36b.
- The value of non-residential building rose 18.4%, to $5.96b.
