EU REAL ESTATE: VIA Outlets: 7yr Green Final (VIAOUT; NR/NR/BBB+)

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: 

• The Riksbank’s September decision will be a very close call between a hold at 2.00% and a 25bp cut to 1.75%. There are credible reasons to motivate either decision, and this is reflected in a split analyst consensus.
• We suspect the Board will be equally split (but don’t necessarily think that will be reflected in any formal dissents), with some members advocating for a form of insurance cut given a still-weak labour market and signs that the recent inflation uptick was temporary, and others preferring to wait for more data before determining if another cut is necessary.
• On balance, we lean slightly in favour of a cut given the dovish signals from some members in the August meeting minutes and recent inflation outturns, but have little conviction in this view.
• The September decision includes an updated MPR and rate path projection. If a cut is delivered, we don’t expect the September rate path to assign any more than a small (e.g. 1bp / 2bp) implied probability of another rate cut. Meanwhile, the policy statement guidance will likely suggest that this is the last cut of the cycle barring an unexpected deterioration in the data. On the other hand, a hold would see the current Q4 2025 rate path of 1.92% remain broadly appropriate, with the policy statement also re-iterating that the Board “still sees some probability of a further interest rate cut this year”. 

• Treasuries drifting near the top end of a narrow overnight range - near the middle of Friday's range
• TYZ5 trades at 112-25.5 (+1.5) on thin cumulative volumes of 217k. 10Y yield +.0019 at 4.1293%.
• The pullback in Treasury futures from their recent highs appear corrective. Price has moved through the 20-day EMA, at 112-28+. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement and attention turns to the 50-day EMA, at 112-08+ and the next key support. Resistance well above at 113-29, Sep 11 high and the bull trigger.
• Data: Limited to Chicago Fed National Activity Index at 0830ET, Bbg survey estimate -0.16 est from -0.19 prior.
• Fedspeak: NY Fed Williams on monetary policy (0945ET), StL Fed Musalem on economy & policy from Brookings Inst (1000ET), Cleveland Fed Hammack on banks & economy (1200ET), Richmond Fed Barkin (1200ET), Fed Gov Miran moderated Q&A from Economic Club/NY (1200).
• Politics: Congress has departed for a week-long recess without a plan to fund the federal government (Senate blocked a CR bill Friday after the House passed the measure. Senate Majority Leader Thune (R-SD) is expected to delay a second CR vote until September 29, exerting as much pressure on Democrats as possible.
• At 1300ET, Press Briefing by the White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.
• At 1600ET, President Trump expected to make an announcement on Significant Medical and Scientific Findings for America's Children.

• In FX, the trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and S/T weakness is considered corrective. Gains in the first half of last week resulted in a climb above 1.1829 the Jul 01 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens 1.1923 next, the 2.00 projection of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing. Support to watch is 1.1667. the 50-day EMA.
• A bullish theme in GBPUSD remains intact and the move down from last Wednesday’s high is considered corrective - for now. However, the pair has traded through the 50-day EMA and this signals scope for a deeper retracement. The next support to watch lies at 1.3441, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at 1.3726, the Sep 17 high.
• USDJPY recovered sharply from last Wednesday’s low and the pair is holding onto its latest gains. A bullish candle pattern on Sep 17 - a hammer formation - provided an early reversal signal. Last Wednesday, the pair breached a number of important short-term support levels, however, this has not confirmed a bearish threat. A continuation higher would open 149.14, the Sep 3 high. Pivot support is 145.49, the Sep 17 low.