US DATA: Very Mild Trend Rise In Jobless Claims Continues

Weekly jobless claims data show some trend softening in labor market conditions but it’s at a slow pace and for now continues to point to a low firing, low hiring environment. 

• Initial jobless claims: 227k (sa, cons 230k) in the week to May 17 – a payrolls reference period – after an unrevised 229k in the week prior.
• The four-week average meanwhile ticked 1k higher to 232k, still its highest since Oct 2024. This is, however, the last week it will likely have been biased higher by the later timing of Easter (capturing a 241k print in the week to Apr 26).
• This average is drifting higher but as we often note it’s still on the low side historically, having averaged 218k in 2019 (during a tight labor market, and without an adjustment for the increase in population since then).
• Continuing claims: 1903k (sa, cons 1882k) in the week to May 10 after a downward revised 1867k (initial 1881k).
• The surprise pop higher reverses two weeks of improvement seen since breaking above the 1900k level for a fresh 3+ year high back in the week to Apr 19.  
• The non-seasonally adjusted data meanwhile show initial claims within typical narrow ranges for the time year whilst continuing claims are right at the top of readings in “normal” years for the time of year (as has been the case for the past month in the latter).