EU UTILITIES: Verbund (VERAV): Proposed Dividend

• EURUSD has been edging lower on Tuesday, extending the pair’s selloff following the breach of important 1.1542 support last Friday. Current price action signals scope for a more protracted move south, towards key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low.
• Price action has likely been assisted by the sharp reversal for EURJPY overnight, with the cross threatening a close below the 20-day EMA (intersects at 176.65). The 50-day EMA remains key for EURJPY, having not closed below the average since late May. It intersects today at 175.00.
• The single currency trades on a firmer footing against the likes of AUD and NZD, owing to the strong risk-off impetus across global markets today.
• SocGen think EURUSD would ‘run with’ any break below 1.15 or above 1.17, although their updated forecasts show they believe an upside move is more likely.
• Meanwhile, ING have noted that despite the hawkish repricing in the USD curve, the EUR/USD drop looks a bit overdone. They add that their short-term fair value model is now showing a 1% undervaluation, and with positioning now much more balanced, the pair can enjoy faster rallies on poor US jobs market news. ING remain optimistic on a rally into year-end to 1.18-1.20.

• Treasuries have traded bull steeper overnight, supported by broad risk-off moves with equity and crude oil futures under pressure throughout the session.
• Today sees a thin docket, headlined by Fed VC Supervision Bowman and a weekly retail sales indicator update. There is likely continued attention on corporate issuance after recent heavy supply from major names including Alphabet and Meta.
• Government shutdown proceedings will also be watched closely after leading Senate Republicans and Democrats talked of a possible off-ramp yesterday.
• Yesterday saw Treasury borrowing estimates below MNI expectations and at the lower end of most estimates seen. Current quarter borrowing requirements were lowered to $569B from August's $590B estimate and the initial estimate of Jan-Mar requirements saw a slight further uptick to $578B. The full QRA will as usual follow tomorrow (MNI preview here).
• Cash yields are 1.5-3bp lower, led by 2s. 2Y yields at 3.576% are off a session low of 3.564% but that still only pared about half of the push higher after a hawkish Powell last Wednesday.
• 2s10s at 51.7bp (+1bp) continues to lift off last week’s low of 46.4bp at what was its lowest since early August.
• TYZ5 trades at 112-25+ (+04) on solid cumulative volumes of 335k, off an overnight high of 112-28+.
• The earlier increase pushed it closer to resistance at 113-03 (20-day EMA) after which lies 113-18+ (Oct 28 high) but markets are likely still attentive to further declines with support seen at 112-16 (Oct 30 low).
• Data: Redbook retail sales the sole data release today. Trade, JOLTS and factory orders are all postponed under the government shutdown.
• Fedspeak: Bowman (0635ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $95B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
• Politics: Trump has no public events scheduled. Press briefing by WH Press Sec Leavitt (1300ET)

Treasury questions are underway in the House of Commons. Livestream here. Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves and other Treasury ministers are facing questions from MPs on a range of topics related to the gov'ts economic policies. Comes just hours after Reeves' high-profile address from Downing Street in which she appeared to prepare the ground for tax increases in the upcoming 26 Nov budget, with the chancellor refusing to rule out manifesto promise-breaking increases to income tax, VAT or National Insurance contributions. 

• Reeves is in the chamber but has not answered any questions directed to her, with Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury Daniel Tomlinson and Economic Secretary to the Treasury Lucy Rigby taking questions. List of questions in advance can be found here. So far, Qs have focused on planned increases to inheritance tax that will hit farmers and access to banking in rural areas. May become more free-wheeling in terms of topics once 'topical questions' underway from around 12:15GMT.