GERMAN DATA: VDMA Machine Orders Expectedly Deteriorate in April
VDMA German machine orders fell 6% Y/Y in April, driven by a low print from non-euro countries (-13% Y/Y). The release represents a significant fall from March's +4% Y/Y, which brought Q1 to be the first positive quarter in machinery orders since Q1 2022.
- "This was an expected setback", VDMA comments as April saw material uncertainty following a firmer trade stance from the US administration. Domestic orders came in at -4% Y/Y (-3% March).
- Sentiment in the manufacturing sector remained remarkably stable in April / May - nevertheless, the near-term outlook for economic activity in Germany remains subdued, with expectations for Q2 not to repeat the comparably strong 0.4% Q/Q growth figure from Q1. Overall German factory orders data for April is scheduled to be released on Friday, with consensus for a -1.5% M/M print.
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AUD: Best performer within G10s
- While just off its best level, the AUD is still the best performer against the Dollar within G10 Currencies, the Aussie has extended through the 2025 high on Friday and has found a boost following Albanese's win over the Weekend.
- Tariffs risks are still the major concern, but some of the continuity in Policy could be seen as supportive at least short Term.
- Next resistance in AUDUSD comes at 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24, and upside traction could be on the card, although Trade risks are at the forefront.
SILVER TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.686 - High Apr 25
- PRICE: $32.385 @ 08:07 BST May 5
- SUP 1: $31.668 - Low May 2
- SUP 2: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 4: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
A strong rally in Silver on Apr 23 reinforced the current bullish theme. This suggests the latest pullback that started Apr 25, is a correction. Price has traded below support at $322.443, the 50-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight scope for a deeper retracement and open $30.915, the Apr 11 low. For bulls, resistance to watch is $33.686, the Apr 24 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the latest uptrend.
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Put Condor
ERU5 98.50/98.37/98.25/98.00p condor, bought for flat in 6.2k.
