EU: VdL Faces Latest No Confidence Votes 9 Oct ~12:00CET, Neither Likely To Pass

President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen faces two votes of no confidence on Thursday, 9 October. Voting will take place from ~12:00CET (06:00ET, 11:00BST). One of the motions was put forward by the right-wing populist Patriots for Europe (PfE) group, and another by the far-left The Left group. 

• As was the case in July, neither motion is likely to succeed. In order for a no confidence motion against a Commission to pass, it needs at least a two-thirds majority of those voting, representing at least half of all MEPs. With 719 MEPs in total, this requires 360 MEPs to vote against VdL for a censure motion to pass.
• This threshold cannot be achieved unless sections of the 'moderate' groups, the centre-right European People's Party, centre-left Socialist and Democrats or liberal centrist Renew Europe, vote in numbers against the Commission. None of these groups is willing to formally back motions put forward by the far-left or far-right.
• In the July censure motion, 175 MEPs voted against the Commission, with 360 in favour and 18 abstentions. The remaining 167 MEPs did not vote.
• The 360 MEPs voting in favour represented a decline from the 370 that backed the Commission in the November 2024 censure motion, and from the 401 that voted in VdL for a second term as Commission president in July 2024.
• Another decline in the number of MEPs willing to back the Commission would not be fatal for the VdL Commission, but could further weaken its position amid long-running arguments over the EU's stance on issues as varied as Gaza, trade with the US, immigration, and the green agenda.