OPTIONS: Varied Sonia/Euribor Structures Trade Wednesday

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 15-Apr 0830 Empire Manufacturing (-20.0, -12.0)
• 15-Apr 0830 Import Price Index MoM (0.4%, 0.0%), YoY (2.0%, 1.4%)
• 15-Apr 0830 Export Price Index MoM (0.1%, 0.0%), YoY (2.1%, --)
• 15-Apr 1130 US Tsy $48B 52W & $70B 6W bill sales
• 15-Apr 1910 Fed Gov Cook, alumni event (text, no Q&A)

A new CBS survey has found that Americans are increasingly downbeat about the future of the US economy, with a growing number predicting a recession this year. 

• Politico notes on the survey: “Nearly two-thirds think the new tariffs will make the economy worse in the short term. But on a broader time horizon, there’s more disagreement: 42% said tariffs will make the economy worse in the long term, 34% said they’ll make it better and 23% said there was no impact or they were unsure... Americans are nearly equally divided on whether they support Trump’s trade goals, with 51% liking his goals and 49% disliking them. But on how he’s pursuing those goals, it’s more lopsided: 37% said they like his approach and 63% dislike it.”
• Bloomberg reports: “Morgan Stanley, BNP Paribas, RBC Capital Markets, Barclays Plc and UBS issued updated projections Thursday and Friday for gross domestic product ranging from -0.1% to 0.6% growth in 2025, and 0.5% to 1.5% growth in 2026. They forecast the unemployment rate would climb to almost 5% next year and penciled in higher inflation in the coming quarters.”
• Wall Street Journal reports on its quarterly survey of economists: “Since President Trump took office, economists have dramatically slashed estimates for growth while raising them for inflation and unemployment. The main reason... : tariffs.”

Figure 1: Expectations for the Economy Over the Next Year

Source: Semafor, CBS

• RES 4: 1.3305 High Oct 2 ‘24  
• RES 3: 1.3274 High Oct 3 ‘24  
• RES 2: 1.3207 High Apr 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3201 High Apr 14       
• PRICE: 1.3182 @ 15:47 BST Apr 14
• SUP 1: 1.2907/1.2709 20-day EMA / Low Apr 7 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.2662 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 1.2654 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Apr 3 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28 

GBPUSD maintains a bullish tone and the pair is building on last week’s gains. The trend condition remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies remain in a bull mode position that highlights a dominant uptrend. An extension higher would open key resistance and the bull trigger is 1.3207, the Apr 3 high. Key support has been defined at 1.2709, the Apr 7 low.