EM LATAM CREDIT: Vale: Fitch Upgrade to BBB+ from BBB
(VALEBZ; Baa2/BBB/BBB+) "Fitch Upgrades Vale IDRs to 'BBB+'; Outlook Stable" - Bbg...
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ASIA: Coming Up In Wednesday Asia Pac Markets
| 0130BST | 0830HKT | 1030AEST | Japan Sep Preliminary PMIs |
| 0200BST | 0900HKT | 1100AEST | Australia 2033 Bond Sale |
| 0230BST | 0930HKT | 1130AEST | Australia Aug CPI |
| 0300BST | 1000HKT | 1200AEST | South Korea Aug Retail Sales |
| 0700BST | 1400HKT | 1600AEST | Japan Aug F Machine Tool Orders |
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
USDCAD TECHS: Remains Above Support For Now
- RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
- RES 1: 1.3850 High Sep 23
- PRICE: 1.3841 @ 21:01 BST Sep 24
- SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25
USDCAD is trading higher this week. A sharp sell-off from the Sep 11 high, resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bull theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.
BOC: Macklem: Could Return To Central Forecasts, Get More Forward-Looking
BOC Gov Macklem said Tuesday that the Bank could present a baseline forecast in its upcoming Monetary Policy Report update in October, for the first time in 3 quarters. Dow Jones quotes Macklem as saying: "We're all having to shorten our horizons through this period of uncertainty. .. But we have seen a bit more stability lately. I do think we're going to get back to a baseline forecast. We're going to have to start being more forward looking again."
- In previous meetings Macklem has noted that the BOC is less forward looking than usual given trade-related uncertainty, but it sounds like the BOC is prepared to return to a central outlook.
- In the latest MPR in July, BOC staff generated three different economic scenarios based on the trade war's intensity, with the "current tariff" scenario the most closely watched. In April's MPR, they used 2 scenarios, while in January along with the baseline economic outlook BOC staff presented an " illustrative scenario to explore how a hypothetical set of tariffs and countermeasures could affect economic activity and inflation in Canada."
