WTI TECHS: (V5) Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $66.03/69.36 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: $63.33 @ 07:07 BST Sep 19
- SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and the latest recovery is considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.71, the May 30 low.
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GOLD TECHS: In A Range
- RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
- RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16
- RES 1: $3409.2/3439.0 - High Aug 8 / 23
- PRICE: $3324.2 @ 07:25 BST Aug 20
- SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30
- SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
- SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support
Despite the latest pullback, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position. The sideways trend that has been in place since the Apr peak appears to be a corrective phase - a pause in the uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3439.0, the Aug 23 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at $3500.1, the Apr 22 low. On the downside, first support to watch lies at $3268.2, the Jul 30 low.
EGB SYNDICATION: Danske Bank On Today's RFGB Syndication
Ahead of today’s new 7-year RFGB syndication, Danske Bank note that “Finland will have fulfilled more than 85% of the 2025 issuance target after the transaction if it sells EUR3bn. Fair value relative to the Finnish ASW-spread curve vs 6M Euribor is MS+29bp”.
- Note that MNI also pencils in a E3bln WNG transaction.
BUNDS: Spiking higher post Cash Open
- The German Bund saw a 13 ticks drop on the Open following a 1 tenth beat in the UK CPI versus Consensus, but the move was quickly reversed and Bund has pushed back above Cash Opening level, to test a new intraday high, and the initial resistance of 129.18 (Friday's high).
- The resistance was seen at 129.18, but with this level being cleared this will be followed by 129.62 next.
- Technically, the support in Futures is unchanged at the 2.80% Yield, circa the 128.57 area.
- With the touch above Inflation Data for the UK out of the Way, EU Final CPI is the only Data left for the session.
- Some will look Towards the FOMC minutes, but won't be moving the needle with Powell due on Friday.
- SUPPLY: Germany 20s, 30s (equates to 17.3k Buxl) could weigh. US Sells $16bn at 20yr Bonds.
- ECB Lagarde, {us} Fed Waller, Bostic.
