BRENT TECHS: (V5) Still Looking For Weakness
- RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance
- PRICE: $67.19 @ 07:09 BST Aug 21
- SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
- SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Brent futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading just above its recent lows. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.
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BRENT TECHS: (U5) Gains This Month Appear Corrective
- RES 4: $85.00 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $81.99 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $80.72 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.66/79.40 - 50.0% of the Jun 23-30 range / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $69.78 @ 07:09 BST Jul 22
- SUP 1: $65.92 - Low Jun 30
- SUP 2: $61.39 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.00 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.70 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
A bearish theme in Brent futures remains present and the July recovery is considered corrective. The sell-off on Jun 23 continues to highlight a bearish threat. Recent weakness has resulted in a print below the 50-day EMA and note too that $66.17, 61.8% of the May 5 - Jun 23 bull leg, has been pierced. A resumption of the bear leg would expose $61.39, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $72.66, a Fibonacci retracement point.
FOREX: Calmer Curve Helps USD Recover Off Lows
- Yesterday's yield curve-tripped pullback in the dollar has steadied overnight, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD fading off the late Europe afternoon highs of 1.1717 and 1.3510 respectively. Similarly, USD/JPY has bounced well off yesterday's 147.08 low, but is yet to recovery above Y148.00, or Y147.87 - the 50% retracement of the Monday range. Resultantly, JPY is the poorest performer in G10, while the USD is modestly outperforming.
- With both the Fed and ECB inside their pre-decision media blackout periods, central bank comms are suitably thin. Yesterday's visit of Scott Bessent to the Fed (nominally to talk regulation) ended in the Tsy Secretary urging the Fed to undertake "comprehensive institutional review" to ensure credibility in the face of significant "mission creep".
- While Bessent stopped well short of any critique of Powell, the FOMC, or commentary on interest rates - it extends the administration's frustration with the Fed - which Bessent referred to yesterday as being "universal basic income for academic economists".
- The criticism still holds major market ramifications: the sharp flattening of the curve yesterday (and USD weakness) was partially triggered by building expectations that Powell's eventual Fed exit will give way to a much easier phase for monpol, particularly as key EU-US and China-US trade agreements look unlikely in the near-term.
USDJPY TECHS: Bull Cycle Remains In Play
- RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.18 High Jul 16
- PRICE: 147.80 @ 07:15 BST Jul 22
- SUP 1: 147.08 Low Jul 21
- SUP 2: 146.63 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 145.85 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7
A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place despite the latest pullback and the pair is holding on to the bulk of its latest gains. Recent strength has resulted in a breach of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and opens 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support to monitor is 145.85, the 50-day EMA.
