WTI TECHS: (V5) Corrective Phase Extends
- RES 4: $77.85 - 2.794 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $75.65 - 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $74.25 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: $66.56/69.36 - High Aug 4 / High Jul 30 and key resistance
- PRICE: $65.35 @ 07:20 BST Sep 3
- SUP 1: $61.29 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $57.71 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.80 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.03 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to be a correction. This short-term corrective cycle remains in play and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
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MNI: SWISS JUL CPI +0% M/M, +0.2% Y/Y
- MNI: SWISS JUL CPI +0% M/M, +0.2% Y/Y
SWITZERLAND DATA: July CPI Moves Higher
Swiss CPI inflation printed above consensus at 0.2% Y/Y in June (vs 0.1% cons and prior), and 0.0% M/M (vs -0.2% cons). Core CPI meanwhile increased to 0.8% Y/Y (vs 0.6% cons and prior).
- This means inflation printed marginally above the 0.1% average Q3 forecast given by the SNB in its June meeting; continued positive prints in Swiss inflation should skew near term policy expectations away from further easing into negative rates territory.
- Looking at the main categories, higher inflation in the services and imported categories stand out (an arguably unusual combination, services inflation is often more closely correlated with the 'domestic' category, more details in due time):
- Domestic 0.7% vs 0.7% prior
- Imported -1.4% vs -1.9% prior
- Services 1.4% vs 1.1% prior
- Goods -1.6% vs -1.6% prior
- Energy and fuels -8.1% vs -8.4% prior
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Resistance Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 121.46/121.73 High Jul 22 / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 121.10 High Aug 1
- PRICE: 120.65 @ Close Jul 31
- SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The primary trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been corrective. A doji candle on Jul 25 highlights a potential bullish reversal. A continuation higher would open 121.46, the Jul 22 high and 121.73, the Jul 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this latter level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low.
