EMERGING MARKETS: USTR to Hold Public Hearing on Brazil

Sep-03 09:19

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US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Analysts Less Convinced On Sept Cut Than Market [2/2]

Aug-04 09:17

Other Analyst Calls – Some Starting To Question More Hawkish Views

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Source: Analyst notes and MNI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Analysts On Balance Less Convinced On Sept Cut [1/2]

Aug-04 09:17
  • There has been a slight paring in expectations of cut at the next FOMC meeting on Sept 16-17 although there is still 21bp of easing priced vs 12bp before Friday's payrolls report.
  • Analysts are less convinced at this stage, at least on balance. The five in the table below continue to expect a September cut (and we assume Goldman Sachs do as well but there wasn't reference in their data note) vs nine at least officially still looking for a later starting point for a resumption of cuts. 

Analysts Calling For 25bp Cut In September – No View Changes But Standard Chartered Discuss 50bp

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Source: Analyst notes and MNI

 

OIL: Lower, OPEC+ Production Questions Noted

Aug-04 09:06

Downside for crude this morning, with questions over the outlook for OPEC+ supply evident given the lack of firm guidance surrounding immediate future production plans after the latest output hike was ratified over the weekend (there is another round of production set to remain offline until late ’26).

  • Both WTI and Brent are through Friday’s lows, with initial support located at the respective 50-day EMAs ($65.37 & $67.95).
  • Our commodities team notes that excess supply fears have resurfaced but with focus also on the potential for Russian output disruption if restrictions are tightened (note Indian officials have shown little worry surrounding U.S. President Trump’s threats re: continued purchases of Russian oil).
  • Background global growth worries and an uptick in the USD also apply weight this morning.