THB: USD/THB Supported Sub 31.70, Trump To Speak To Thai/Cambodian Leaders

The Japanese Ministry Of Finance (MoF) sells Y 525.8bn 30-Year JGBs:

• Average Yield (%): 3.166 (prev. 3.248)
• Average Price: 100.52 (prev. 99.27)
• High Yield (%): 3.183 (prev. 3.259)
• Low price: 100.25 (prev. 99.10)
• % Allotted At High Yield (%): 8.4507 (prev. 41.4864)
• Bid/Cover: 3.1248x (prev. 3.4110x)

At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are stronger, +8 compared to settlement levels.

• Japan Sep trade and current account balance data were stronger than forecast, particularly on the current account side. In unadjusted terms, we printed ¥4483.3bn, versus ¥2456.6bn projected and ¥3701.4bn prior. In seasonally adjust terms, we were at ¥4347.6bn for the current account, close to double the consensus projection and prior outcome. This is the best outcome for at least a few decades.
• Cash JGBs are 2.5bps cheaper to 1bp richer across benchmarks, with a steepening bias. The benchmark 30-year yield is 2.5bps higher at 3.166%, 20-25bps below its cyclical high.
• This month’s 30-year JGB auction features an outright yield 20-25bps below its cyclical high, approximately the same level as last month’s issuance.
• The 10s30s yield curve is around 15bps flatter than the previous auction and 25bps below its cycle peak at 170bps.
• On a relative value basis, the 30-year bond is at a richer valuation versus last month, based on the 20-/30-/40-year butterfly spread.
• The previous 30-year JGB auction delivered mixed results. The low price fell short of dealer expectations of 99.15. However, the cover ratio increased to 3.4110x from 3.30806x. On the other hand, the auction tail shortened significantly to 0.17 from 0.18, indicating an improvement in bidding strength.

The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) will today sell Y700bn of 30-Year JGBs. The MoF last sold 30-year debt on 7 October 2025. 

• This month’s 30-year JGB auction features an outright yield 20-25bps below its cyclical high, approximately the same level as last month’s issuance.
• The 10s30s yield curve is around 15bps flatter than the previous auction and 25bps below its cycle peak at 170bps.
• On a relative value basis, the 30-year bond is at a richer valuation versus last month, based on the 20-/30-/40-year butterfly spread. Nevertheless, the 30-year is still holding some of the dramatic cheapening seen in May, which took the 30-year to its most discounted level in over 20 years.
• Investor sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds remains uncertain.
• Against this backdrop, today’s 30-year auction will serve as a real test of investor appetite. Ultra-long maturities remain a soft spot in the market, and their performance will be key in determining whether recent volatility continues.
• Results are due at 0335 BST / 1235 JT.