THB: USD/THB Eyeing Upside 33.00 Test, Dips To 20-100 day EMAs Well Supported
USD/THB is off earlier highs (30.90) last back around 32.80, although the recent uptrend in the pair looks to be broadly intact (albeit with a good degree of volatility). Dips back to the 20 and 100-day EMAs (32.50-32.55) remain well supported, while upside focus will rest on a test of 33.00, which also coincides with the 200-day EMA resistance region.
- Signs of gold losing upside momentum are working against THB, while elevated USD/JPY levels are also likely in play for the pair. Some pairs in the region appear more in tune with yen shifts than they do with the resilient yuan backdrop.
- Earlier we had the BoT minutes from the recent policy meeting. The bias is left open for further rate cuts, with 2 members voting for a 25bps cut, but the majority of the board wanted to preserve policy space. THB NDIRS 1y1y sits off recent highs, last +1.04%.
- Data showed a surge in domestic car sales of 23.8%y/y for Sep, a potentially positive sign for domestic demand. In levels terms though car sales are still not showing meaningfully trend improvement (see the chart below).
Fig 1: Thailand Domestic Car Sales - Largely Sideways Trend
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
CHINA: Bond Futures Rally in Morning Trade
- Following the daily 7-day OMO, a CNY300bn 140-day reverse repo was issued this morning.
- The 10-Yr bond future is up +0.195 at 107.95, its biggest jump since August whilst the 10-Yr CGB is down at 1.79%.
- The gains push the 10-Yr above the 20-day EMA of 107.93.
JGBS: Futures At Lows At Lunch
At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are weaker and at session lows, -12 compared to the settlement levels.
- See the full MNI BoJ Review here.
- The BOJ kept rates at 0.5%, but two members dissented in favour of a 25bp hike, arguing the price target is “more or less achieved” and rates should move “closer to neutral,” highlighting stronger hawkish voices within the board.
- Ueda remained balanced, noting “underlying inflation is approaching 2%, but the 2% level has not yet been reached” and that there is “little sign of tariff having impact on Japan’s economy,” while emphasising ongoing global uncertainty and data dependency.
- Views diverge—some expect a hike in October following the Tankan Survey and LDP leadership election, while others see January 2026 as the base case. Political risks (e.g., dovish LDP candidates) and Fed-driven yen appreciation could delay tightening.
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after Friday’s modest sell-off.
- Cash JGBs are slightly weaker across benchmarks, led by the futures-linked 7-year (+2.3bps). The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.6bp higher at 1.651% versus the cycle high of 1.653% set on Friday.
- Swap rates are 1-2bps higher. Swap spreads are mostly wider.
STIR: BOJ-Dated OIS Firmer Than Pre-MPM Levels
Markets had been positioned for a cautious, wait-and-see approach from the BoJ at this meeting.
- Nevertheless, at the time of writing, BOJ-dated OIS pricing was ~5bps firmer across meetings versus Friday’s pre-MPM levels.
- Moreover, post-MPM moves leave 2026 meetings 4-15bps firmer than early August levels.
- Current OIS pricing implies just a 50% probability of a 25bp hike in October, rising to 62% by November and 86% by December.
Figure 1: BOJ-Dated OIS – Today Vs. August 1, 2025
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
