THB: USD/THB Back To Low 33.30 Region, Domestic Cars Sales Recovering
USD/THB is back to the 33.30/35 region, around 1% stronger in baht terms, after we closed yesterday at 33.665. A good part of this is catch up with USD losses post yesterday's onshore spot close. Still, the broader USD/Asia tone has mostly been softer so far today, which has likely aided the THB at the margins, particularly with the USD ticking up against the majors.
- Technical wise, we are back sub all key EMAs, with the 50-day at 33.78 close to Monday highs. Downside focus in the pair is likely to rest just under 33.10, which marked recent April lows. A clean break sub 33.00 could see lows from last Sep/Oct near 32.15 targeted from a medium term standpoint.
- Gold's recover yesterday has likely helped as well, although bullion is struggling in the first part of Tuesday trade. Local equities are still short of late March levels. Offshore investors sold local equities again yesterday, while also trimming bond inflows for April (Monday saw -$341.5mn in outflows from this space).
- Local data saw domestic rise for March. We are back close to levels that prevailed this time last year and up nearly 50% from Oct 2024 lows. Still, we are sub average levels from 2022/2023, see the chart below. Car exports were still down in y/y terms and a cloud hangs over the outlook given the tariff backdrop.
- Tomorrow, we get March IP, along with March trade figures, along with the BoT decision. The sell-side consensus is for a 25bps cut.
Fig 1: Thailand Car Sales Recovering But Still Sub 2022/23 Averages
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 1.4402 High Mar 20
- PRICE: 1.4292 @ 16:50 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 1.4235 Low Mar 26 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD traded through support at 1.4242 on Wednesday but has recovered. A return lower and clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. Moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A reversal higher would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 1.4543, the Mar 4 high. First resistance is 1.4402, the Mar 20 high.
US FISCAL: Debt Limit "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up, But Cash Dipping Pre-Tax
Treasury data shows that there were $207B of "extraordinary measures" available to circumvent hitting the debt limit as of Wednesday Mar 26.
- That's the most since Jan 27th and up from $163B a week earlier, from a total $376B available.
- However, Treasury cash in the TGA fell to $316B as of the 26th (and was down to $280B on Thursday), meaning there were a combined $523B of resources available to avert the debt limit, the lowest since the impasse began in January (and half of the starting amount of just over $1T).
- The next couple of weeks will be very important for Treasury, as they represent the biggest tax take of the year. The Congressional Budget Office reported this week that per its estimates "if the debt limit [$36.1T] remains unchanged, the government's ability to borrow using extraordinary measures will probably be exhausted in August or September 2025." Treasury wrote to Congress this month that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
AUDUSD TECHS: Remains Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6409 High Feb 21 and a bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.6391 High Mar 17 / 18
- PRICE: 0.6291 @ 16:46 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.6258 Low Mar 21
- SUP 2: 0.6187 Low Feb 4
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD is unchanged. A short-term bull theme is intact and the latest move down appears corrective. Key short-term support to watch is 0.6187, the Mar 4 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bear threat. First support is at 0.6258, the Mar 21 low. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on 0.6409, the Feb 21 high. Clearance of this hurdle would strengthen the bull cycle and resume the uptrend that started Feb 3.
