PLN: USDPLN Hits 7-Year Low as Global Conditions Turn Supportive to CEE FX

Jun-26 12:45

USDPLN is trading lower for the seventh consecutive session, during which time it has fallen over 2.5%. Spot briefly pierced the 2020 low of 3.6168 earlier today – placing the pair at its lowest level since 2018 – before partially trimming losses. Meanwhile, EURPLN has narrowed the gap to key short-term support at 4.2230, the May 15 low, albeit today’s range is relatively narrow.

  • Investor focus on carry trades, the surge in the euro to a 4-year high and the stickiness of inflation in CEE have all supported the regional currencies, with both the NBH and CNB striking hawkish tones at their respective central bank meetings earlier in the week. HSBC believe that all conditions are met for CEE currencies to continue to perform well in the near-term, while ING say they remain bullish on the currencies.

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Minor Moves On Hassett And Then Durable Goods

May-27 12:38
  • Treasuries have ticked a little higher on the preliminary April durable goods report, with overall orders not quite as weak as expected but core orders more notable as they surprisingly slipped -1.3% M/M (cons -0.1%) with only a partial offset from an upward revised 0.3% (initial 0.1%).
  • TYM5 at 110-08 is back around where it was before it nudged 1-2 ticks lower shortly before the durables release to ~110-06 on NEC’s Hassett saying there could be more trade deals announced this week and that tariffs could go to 10% or less for some countries with good offers.
  • Cash yields are 0.6-6.3bp lower on the day, with 30s leading the declines on the previously discussed potential Japan MoF bond issuance composition tweaks.

SOFR: Outright call seller

May-27 12:34

SFRN5 96.12c, sold at 3.75 in 2k vs 95.87.

MNI:US APR DURABLE NEW ORDERS -6.3%; EX-TRANSPORTATION +0.2%

May-27 12:30
  • MNI:US APR DURABLE NEW ORDERS -6.3%; EX-TRANSPORTATION +0.2%
  • US MAR DURABLE GDS NEW ORDERS REV TO +7.6%
  • US APR NONDEF CAP GDS ORDERS EX-AIR -1.3% V MAR +0.3%