PHP: USD/PHP Continues To Find Resistance Above 58.30, NEER Quite Weak
USD/PHP continues to find resistance on moves into the 58.30/40 region. We have topped out on 5 occasions on moves into this area going back to late Sep. This suggests potential official resistance on a move beyond this region. Back in early Aug we saw a sharp move through 58.50 but this was reversed quite quickly. So again this points to official resistance around this area. We have to go back to 57.73 for the 20-day EMA support point on the downside.
- The inflation backdrop for Sep was below market forecasts, but showed sequential improvement in the headline. A further rate cut here may still be warranted from the inflation standpoint, but concern around underperforming FX trends may be a factor in helping keep the BSP to remain on hold this Thursday. The consensus is for no change, but some forecasters are expecting a 25bps cut.
- Reinforcing the point around FX weakness is the Citi PHP NEER, which is at fresh multi year lows, see below
- Growth concerns amid onshore corruption fallout, is another potential factor that could drive a rate cut (although equally the central bank may not want to show signs of panic as the government's corruption investigation continues).
- The CEO of the local stock exchange highlighted yesterday that these concerns were keeping offshore inflows away. The PCOMP is up so far today, but can't get too far away from 6000 at this stage. Offshore investors remain net sellers of local stocks.
- A similar viewpoint may be held around PHP, with offshore investors reluctant to re-engage until greater clarity is seen on the domestic/political outlook.
Fig 1: Citi PHP NEER - Continuing to Trend Lower
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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LOOK AHEAD: US Macro: PPI (Wed) and CPI (Thu) Inflation
US PPI inflation is released on Wednesday before CPI inflation on Thursday, an unusual ordering that should see core PCE implications dialled in after the CPI release rather than the usual wide range waiting for specific PPI details. PPI will be watched more closely than usual this month after a far stronger than expected jump in last month’s July report fired a warning short over tariff-based cost pressures starting to feed through. That included a 0.6% M/M increase in our preferred core series of PPI ex food, energy & trade services, which strips out items such as the then booming portfolio management & investment advice category following the strength in equity markets. It's too early to gauge an accurate sense of analyst expectations for August.
CPI inflation on Thursday will then be the last major release ahead of the Sep 17 FOMC decision. Consensus looks for core CPI at 0.3% M/M after the 0.32% M/M in July, another monthly increase comfortably above a pace consistent with 2% inflation. August should in theory start to see the largest tariff impacts along with September and possibly October. Returning to July’s report, core goods inflation was softer than expected, at a still solid (by core goods standards) 0.2% M/M for a second month running but about half that of 0.4% expected by analysts. Instead, non-housing core services surprised higher. The latter was a “dangerous” development in the words of a usually dovish Chicago Fed’s Goolsbee (’25 voter), who speaking after Friday’s payrolls report is still undecided on a September cut whilst looking for August inflation data “to get more information”.
LOOK AHEAD: US Macro: Payrolls Preliminary Benchmark Revisions (Tue)
- The BLS on Tuesday will publish preliminary estimates of benchmark revisions, based off QCEW data for Q1.
- These will give an indication of the actual benchmark revisions on the Mar 2025 level of payrolls due with the Jan 2026 payrolls report released in early February.
- Bear in mind that the final benchmark estimate tends to nearly always be more negative than the preliminary figure – see historical values to the right.
- That doesn’t mean they can’t be large again after last year’s historically negative revision that lowered the level of payrolls by ~600k. Initial estimates we’ve seen look for another large downward revision, with the smallest being worth -550k but with wide ranges higher.
FED: Barclays Adds A Cut To 2025 Fed View
Barclays analysts now expect three Fed cuts in the remainder of the year, adding October to their pre-existing call for 25bp reductions in September and December. "Given the disappointing August employment report, we expect the FOMC to see more elevated downside risks to the employment side of the mandate."
- As for a 50bp September cut, "we think that the FOMC will view [that] as sending too strong a signal that labor market conditions are deteriorating. Indeed, we think that participants such as Powell understand that the slower pace of payroll employment reflects at least, in part, slower labor supply, which does not translate into increased labor market slack."
- For 2026 they continue to expect 25bp cuts in March and June to 3.00-3.25%, but "we do not think the FOMC will be able to cut rates more than twice next year, as we think that activity will show some slight acceleration, with the economy adapting to the new tariff environment and fiscal policy providing some support, and the unemployment rate will revert down amid limited increase in labor supply."
