FOREX: US$ In Narrow Range, GBP Outperforms
The USD traded in a narrow range on Friday to finish little changed. Aussie underperformed the G10 on Friday, apart from the Swiss franc, pressured by weaker risk appetite, while GBP and SEK outperformed possibly due to year-end flows.
- USDJPY paused its uptrend to finish down 0.1% to 157.83 after reaching a low of 157.35. It is currently around 157.76. Initial resistance is at 158.08, December 26 high, with support at 155.89, November 20 high. Bullish conditions remain intact with a clear dominant uptrend.
- AUDUSD fell to a low of 0.6201 before recovering somewhat to be down 0.1% at 0.6217, and is currently around this level. Initial resistance is at 0.6337 and support at 0.6199, December 19 low, with the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs continuing. NZDUSD up 0.2% to 05633 left AUDNZD 0.25% lower at 1.1035.
- The pound outperformed with GBPUSD up 0.4% to 1.2578, while EURUSD was flat leaving EURGBP 0.4% lower at 0.8289. A clear breach of 0.8319m 50-day EMA, would undermine the bear theme. While EURUSD is trading above its recent lows, it is still in a downtrend. AUDGBP fell 0.5% to 0.4942, just above the December 18 low of 0.4926.
- Equities were mixed with the S&P down 1.1% but Euro stoxx up 0.8%. Oil prices were higher at the end of last week with WTI up 0.9% to $70.60/bbl. Copper was flat and iron ore is just under $100/t.
- There are no data in Australia/NZ today with the final December Jibun Bank Japan manufacturing PMI and November South Korean November IP the main data releases.
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USDCAD TECHS: Pullback Appears Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4287 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4196 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4078/4178 High Nov 27 / 26 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4005 @ 16:09 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 1.3965/28 20-day EMA / Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 2: 1.3858 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
Trend conditions in USDCAD remain bullish and Tuesday’s fresh cycle reinforced this theme. The move higher confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and marked an extension of the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4196 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. For now, the latest pullback appears corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9
- RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13
- RES 2: 0.6604/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6534/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
- PRICE: 0.6512 @ 16:03 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 0.6434 Low Nov 26
- SUP 3: 0.6400 Round number support
- SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support
- SUP 4: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023
A bearish theme in AUDUSD remains intact. The fresh cycle low on Tuesday marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. The pair has recovered from its recent lows - a correction. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6534, the 20-day EMA.
EURJPY TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Nov 11 - Aug 5 bear leg
- RES 3: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 160.71/162.58 High Nov 27 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 158.62 @ 16:01 GMT Nov 29
- SUP 1: 158.15 Low Nov 29
- SUP 2: 157.87 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 157.05 Low Sep 18
- SUP 4: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support
EURJPY remains soft and the cross is again trading lower, today. The cross has cleared a number of retracement points and sights are on 157.87, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle. A break of this level would strengthen a bearish theme and open 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 162.58, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this EMA is required to signal a reversal.
