MYR: USDMYR Holds Near Oversold on 14 RSI
Dec-03 02:35
- USDMYR is steady today around 4.1265 / 4.1295 in the morning session, nearing oversold on the 14-day Relative Strength Index.
- USDMYR has trended through oversold back in November for several days, before correcting back above.
- Following better than expected economic data out Monday, the positive momentum continues for USD/MYR as it nears levels of September 2024 when much like the outlook currently, Central Bank rates were expected to remain on hold.
- The FTSE Malay KLCI had a very strong start to the month up over 1.5% through Tuesday, yet has given back some of those gains in early trade Wednesday, falling -0.45% whilst bond yields have had a strong sell off with the MGS 10-Yr jumping +5bps to 3.513%.
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USD: BBDXY-Moving Into Pivotal 1220/1230 Resistance, Risk/Reward Favors a Fade
Nov-03 02:13
The BBDXY range Friday night was 1218.44 - 1221.43, Asia is currently trading around 1220, -0.01%. The USD built on its gains from last week into the month-end. The 1220-30 area remains tough resistance, only a sustained close back above 1230 would start to challenge the conviction of the longer-term USD shorts. Risk/Reward does still favour fading this moving initially but the price action is starting to look more constructive as higher lows are being made on the Daily chart through October. A sustained move back above 1230 would potentially signal a medium term low is in place and a deeper pullback is on the cards.
- Lance Roberts points out on X that: “There are still a lot of shorts on the dollar, which could fuel a further advance if they are forced to cover.”
- He also refers to a note put out by SocGen: "Over the past decade, the US has consistently outpaced the Eurozone in GDP growth, yields, and inflation — supporting an average EUR/USD near 1.12.”
- “After narrowing growth and rate gaps lifted the euro to 1.19 earlier this year, weaker Eurozone forecasts now point to limited upside, with EUR/USD likely reverting toward its long-term average around 1.12 in the next 18 months." - Societe Generale
Fig 1: BBDXY Weekly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
CHINA: Rating Dog Manufacturing PMI Moderates
Nov-03 01:53
- The September expansion of the RatingDog PMI manufacturing seemed to reflect a period of expansion ahead of the Xi Trump meeting.
- Whilst today's release for the October data will not capture the impact of the meeting, it is more reflective of the type of expansion that is occurring we think.
- Up +50.6 in October it is a significant decline from the +51.2 in September, but importantly is the third month in a row of expansion.
- Output declined to +50.8 from 52.0 and new orders declined from the month prior.
MNI: CHINA OCT RATINGDOG MANUFACTURING PMI 50.6 VS 51.2 IN SEP
Nov-03 01:49
- CHINA OCT RATINGDOG MANUFACTURING PMI 50.6 VS 51.2 IN SEP
