LATAM FX: USDMXN Narrows Gap To Key Medium-Term Support, Brazil Activity Tmrw

• RES 4: 0.8865 High Nov 14 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Nov 20
• RES 2: 0.8818 High Nov 26
• RES 1: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8796 @ 16:22 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 0.8755/21 50-day EMA / Low Dec 9
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The current upleg in EURGBP highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase between Nov 14 - Dec 9. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.         

In a speech Tuesday (link) largely addressed to developments in payments, cash and digital money/stablecoins, BOC Gov Macklem largely repeats many of the key monetary policy messaging he and Governing Council made last week alongside its rate hold. 

• With words taken nearly exactly from the December meeting statements, he says "the economy is proving resilient overall. Inflationary pressures continue to be contained despite added costs related to the reconfiguration of trade. Total CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year now, and we expect it to remain near the target. In the current situation, Governing Council sees the policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty is of course still very high. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond."
• BOC rate pricing was little changed on the session, including post-speech Q&A (which had little in addition to the above), with about 18bp of hikes priced through next October.
• Separately on a more dovish note, MNI's Policy team reported: "Canada's central bank has a case to lower interest rates next year if the economy remains weak, while the hike some investors are betting on won't happen, former deputy Paul Beaudry said Tuesday, speaking during a panel talk for the Bennett Jones law firm."

• 5,000 SFRH6 96.37/96.43/96.50/96.68 broken call condors, 1.0 net / belly over at 1302:16ET