ASIA FX: USD/KRW, USD/PHP Break Higher, - Oil & JPY Weigh, CNH Outperforms

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 0.8769 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 0.8744 High Aug 7  
• PRICE: 0.8735 @ 06:43 BST Sep 23
• SUP 1: 0.8650/8597 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg

Recent weakness in EURGBP has been corrective and last week’s recovery confirmed the end of the latest corrective phase. Support to watch lies at 0.8597, the Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a bull theme and reinstate a recent bearish threat. For bulls, the resumption of gains opens 0.8744, the Aug 7 high. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high. First support is 0.8650, the 50-day EMA.

Austria, Greece and Italy are still due to sell bills this week, while Germany and France came to the market yesterday. We expect issuance to be E21.6bln in first-round operations, up from E19.1bln last week.

• This morning, Austria will look to come to the market with E1bln of the 4-month Jan 29, 2026 ATB and E1.25bln of the new 6-month Mar 26, 2026 green ATB.
• Tomorrow morning, Greece will look to sell E500mln of the new 26-week Mar 27, 2027 GTB.
• Finally on Thursday morning, Italy will look to hold a BOT auction, with E6.5bln of the new 6-month Mar 31, 2026 BOT on offer. 

Market Summary:  The Hang Seng fell yesterday on BYD news and is lower again today by -0.96%. The CSI 300 is down -1.19%, the Shanghai Comp down -1.23% and the Shenzhen Comp down -2.27%.  The Yuan Reference Rate at 7.1057 Per USD; Estimate 7.1087 and the CGB 10-Yr a touch higher in yield at 1.80%

• China may have scope to lower its loan rates before the end of the year to stimulate domestic demand, following recent rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve that have eased pressure on the yuan, although any monetary easing is likely to be constrained by narrowing bank profit margins, Shanghai Securities News reports, citing analysts.  The Fed’s latest rate cut has created a more accommodative global liquidity environment, potentially giving China greater flexibility in adjusting its monetary policy  (source Shanghai Securities News)
• Several Chinese southern cities have implemented preventive measures, such as suspending work and schools, to prepare for the arrival of super typhoon Ragasa.  Dongguan, Jiangmen, Shantou, Zhuhai, and Yangjiang in Guangdong province, as well as Haikou in Hainan province, yesterday announced they would implement the 'Five Stop' measures, which are suspending classes, halting work, ceasing production, stopping transportation services, and closing businesses.  (source Yicai)