KRW: USD/KRW Slumps, Spill Over From TWD Gains/Kospi Surge Helping
Spot USD/KRW has fallen sharply in the last part of dealings. From around 1370 we were last near 1358, up for the session by close to 0.80%. We have seen firm gains elsewhere in the region, with TWD (now up 0.80% as well) also a standout. USD/JPY is lower, along with USD/CNH, which is likely aiding the won as well.
- Positive spill over is likely from local equities, which show no signs of slowing down, up a further 0.85% to fresh multi year highs. The won has still lagged local equity gains.
- Per the NBUY function on Bloomberg, offshore flows into local equities look to be strong today.
- Earlier BoK Governor Rhee stated that the central bank will decide carefully the size of future cuts (per BBG). The central bank also endorsed stronger fiscal stimulus, which shouldn't impact inflation (per BBG).
- For spot USD/KRW, downside focus in the pair is likely to rest at recent lows, 1351.8, seen in earlier June.
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JGBS AUCTION: Poll: 30-Year JGB Auction
*JAPAN 30Y GOVT BOND AUCTION MAY HAVE 91.10 LOWEST PRICE:POLL – BLOOMBERG
JGBS AUCTION: 30Y Supply Faces A Much Higher Yield
The Japanese Ministry of Finance (MoF) will today sell Y800bn of 30-Year JGBs. The MoF last sold 30-year debt on 8 April 2025.
- This month’s 30-year JGB auction features an outright yield approximately 50–55 basis points higher than last month’s issuance. Notably, the current yield is hovering just below its cycle high of 3.0%.
- The 10s30s yield curve is now 5–10 basis points steeper than at the time of the previous auction, though still around 10 basis points below its recent peak.
- On a relative value basis, the 30-year bond remains largely unchanged versus last month when viewed through the 20-/30-/40-year butterfly spread.
- Today's supply comes amid weakening sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds, weighed down by positive trade deal developments, consistently strong U.S. economic data, and a further pushback in expectations for Fed rate cuts.
- Against this backdrop, today’s 30-year auction will serve as a key gauge of investor appetite in the face of heightened uncertainty.
- Results are due at 0435 BST / 1235 JT.
AUSTRALIA DATA: NAB Bus Conditions Continue To Trend Lower, Labor Costs Steady
The NAB Australian business survey saw conditions ease to +2 from a revised +3 reach in March. On the confidence front, the reading edged up to -1 from -3 prior. These headline measures aren't suggesting a sharp turnaround in domestic economic growth momentum in the near term.
- The first chart below plots NAB business conditions against GDP growth in y/y terms. Whilst the conditions measure is above the level of GDP growth, conditions have been trending lower since a cycle peak back in late 2022.
- Business confidence has largely tracked sideways in recent years, and struggled above to sustain positive readings.
Fig 1: NAB Australian Business Conditions Versus GDP Growth Y/Y
Source: NAB/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
- In terms of the detail, trading conditions edged down to 5.2 from 5.7, while profitability fell to -4.2 from around flat prior. This is the weakest profit reading since 2020.
- The employment sub index edged down to 3.5, but has been fairly steady. The labour cost measure was unchanged at 1.6 and remains close to unchanged since late last year. The second chart below is of this metric versus the wage index published by the ABS (in y/y terms). This measure for Q1, prints tomorrow, with the y/y outcome projected unchanged at 3.2%y/y (which is consistent with recent NAB outcomes).
- The prices measure rose to 0.8 from 0.6 in March, but has been sub 1.0 since June last year.
Fig 2: NAB Australian Labour Costs Versus Wages Growth Y/Y
Source: NAB/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
