JPY: USD/JPY Tests 50-day EMA Resistance Amid US Yield Rise, PPI Locally Today
Feb-12 21:39
Yen was comfortably the weakest performer in the G10 space for Wednesday's session. USD/JPY sits around 1.25% higher, leaving the pair last near 154.45 in early Thursday dealings. Session highs from Wednesday printed at 154.80. We had stronger than expected US CPI, which boosted US yields and contributed to yen underperformance.
- For USD/JPY technicals, key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear breach at the close would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. The move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind.
- EUR/JPY surged around 1.5% for Wednesday's session, putting the pair back above 160.00 (highs were at 160.97). EUR received an additional boost in late Wednesday trade, as the positive tone of the Trump/Putin discussions fuels optimism towards what Trump describes as a ‘successful conclusion’ to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
- US-JP yield differentials continued to recover from recent lows, the US 10yr Tsy yield to 4.62%, up nearly 9bps, (session highs were at 4.66%). Fed Chair Powell cautioned not reading too much into the CPI print (+0.4%m/m core versus 0.3% forecast), ahead of the PPI print later on Thursday US time.
- Locally today we have the Jan PPI print. Focus could also be on whether Trump enacts reciprocal tariffs late in US on Wednesday, with conflicting headlines as to whether this would be the case.
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AUD: A$ Stabilizes With Equity Sentiment, Westpac Consumer Sentiment Today
Jan-13 21:28
AUD/USD tracks near 0.6160/65 in early Tuesday dealings, after rising close to 0.25% for Monday's session. Broader USD trends were mixed with EU currencies still seeing weakness (albeit up from lows), while commodity related FX did slightly better. The USD BBDXY index didn't shift much, last near 1320.
- FX risk sentiment stabilized as we progressed through the US session. EU equities moved up from session lows, but still finished weaker (off close to 0.50%). US equity markets were mixed, the SPX rising 0.16%, but Nasdaq off 0.38%.
- AUD/USD steadily recovered from fresh cycle lows (0.6131) to current levels. Technical sentiment remains bearish with focus on downside round figure support at 0.6100. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 0.6247, 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA is at 0.6365.
- More action was evident in USD/JPY, with this pair supported sub 157.00, to be back around 157.70 in latest dealings. AUD/JPY sits back around 97.15/20 in latest dealings, against intra-session lows on Monday of 96.38.
- US yields mostly stayed on the front foot, around 2-4bps firmer across the key benchmarks, although there was limited data out overnight. NY Fed 1yr inflation expectations were steady, but longer dated expectations were mixed.
- In the commodity space, the Bloomberg aggregate index rose a further 0.55%, the metals index a further 0.38% firmer (its 6th straight gain).
- Locally today we have the Westpac consumer sentiment reading on tap.
ASIA: Coming Up In The Asian Session On Tuesday
Jan-13 21:21
| 0345GMT | 1145HKT | 1445AEDT | Thailand Dec Consumer Confidence |
| 0630GMT | 1430HKT | 1730AEDT | India Dec Wholesale Prices |
ASIA: Coming Up In The Asia-Pac Session On Tuesday
Jan-13 21:17
| 2330GMT | 0730HKT | 1030AEDT | Australia Jan Westpac Consumer Conf |
| 2350GMT | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Nov BoP Current Account Balance |
| 2350GMT | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Nov Trade Balance BoP Basis |
| 2350GMT | 0750HKT | 1050AEDT | Japan Dec Bank Lending |
| 0100GMT | 0900HKT | 1200AEDT | Japan BOJ Deputy Governor Himino Speech |
| 0135GMT | 0935HKT | 1235AEDT | EU ECB's Rehn Keynote Speech |
| 0335GMT | 1135HKT | 1435AEST | South Korea Nov Money Supply |
| 0500GMT | 1300HKT | 1600AEST | Japan to Sell 5-Year Bonds |
| 0830GMT | 1630HKT | 1930AEST | Japan Dec Eco Watchers Survey |
