JPY: USDJPY - Struggles To Hold Gains, Testing 145.00 Support
The overnight range was 145.42 - 146.25, Asia is currently trading around 145.50. USD/JPY continues to find decent demand back towards 145.00 for now.
- Bloomberg - “In the bond market, the yields on so-called ultra-long-term government bonds, which have maturities of more than 10 years, are soaring. Some in the market believe that the selling of government bonds is being spurred by calls from both the ruling and opposition parties for a reduction in the consumption tax and concerns about Japan's worsening finances. If interest rates rise and interest payments on government bonds increase, it will put pressure on the country's policy expenses.”
- Nikkei Asia - "Japan's ultralong bond yields of 3% may be 'just a passing milestone'"
- The G7 will be holding a meeting from 20th to the 22nd, there will be attention on any discussion between the US and Japan, particularly if foreign exchange rates are discussed in relation to the tariffs.
- USD/JPY is consolidating after a powerful break higher, support is now around 145.00. Stocks had a positive close but it seems USD/JPY is taking its cues from US yields which have backed off from some pretty pivotal levels.
- The support around 144/145 looks important now, the price action though does not look great and the market is still more comfortable selling rallies.
- MNI FX OPTIONS: Expiries for May15 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)USD/JPY: Y147.75($1.09bln), Y146.85($778.9bln), Y145.00($735.4bln)
- CFTC data shows Asset managers pared back their already extensive JPY longs very slightly, and leveraged funds continue to build on their newly initiated shorts.
Data/Event : 1Q GDP, Mar Industrial Production
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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CNH: USD/CNH near 7.3300, Busy Data Day Headlined By Q1 GDP
USD/CNH tracks near 7.3265 in early Wednesday dealings, just under Tuesday highs around the 7.3300 level. CNH lost 0.23% for Tuesday's session, with the pair mostly on the front foot as broader USD indices rose for the session (the first gain since the start of last week). Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.3158. The CNY CFETS basket tracker (per BBG) still fell though, down a further 0.21% to 94.41, fresh lows back to mid 2023.
- For USD/CNH technicals, we are above all key EMAs, the 20-day is near 7.3030, the 50-day around 7.2865. Upside focus is likely to rest on April 10 highs above 7.3700.
- For yuan sentiment, focus remains firmly on the tariff backdrop. US President Trump calling on China to reach out to him to kick start trade discussions. This came after China ordered a halt to Boeing aircraft deliveries late yesterday.
- Today is a busy data day in China with Q1 GDP out, along with March house prices and March monthly activity figures, as well as the surveyed jobless rate. Growth is expected to close to Q4 outcomes (projected at 1.4% q/q). China data outcomes have surprised somewhat on the upside in recent months (per the positive Citi CNY EASI trend).
- Still, it remains to be seen if any upside surprises today impacts yuan sentiment, as markets remain focused on the growth outlook and trade risks in 2025. UBS downgraded its 2025 GDP growth projection to 3.4% yesterday.
AUD: A$ Outperforms on Tuesday, But Softer Start To Today
Aussie along with the kiwi and pound were the only currencies in the G10 to strengthen against the greenback, as the former two continued to recover in a more stable market environment. AUDUSD reached a peak of 0.6383 before trending lower as the S&P weakened. The pair finished up 0.3% to 0.6344 but is down 0.1% to 0.6341 in today’s APAC trading as the risk pullback during the US session continued. It is already off the early lows though. The USD index rose 0.4%, as the euro weakened on slow progress on tariff negotiations.
- Technicals point to a short-term bullish tone with AUDUSD rising above 0.6267, 50-day EMA, which signals scope for the reversal to strengthen. Initial resistance is at Tuesday’s intraday high of 0.6383 with the reversal trigger at 0.6389. Initial support is at 0.6232, 20-day EMA.
- Kiwi outperformed the G10 leaving AUDNZD down 0.1% to 1.0756 and it is currently slightly lower at 1.0752.
- AUDJPY rose 0.4% to 90.88 but is down 0.3% to 90.65 so far today. Aussie gained some ground against the euro rising 0.9% to 0.5624 but is currently down 0.2% to 0.5613. AUDGBP was down slightly to 0.4795 but is down 0.1% to 0.4790 in APAC trading.
- Equities were mixed with the Euro stoxx up 1.2% but the S&P down 0.2%. Oil prices were steady with WTI at $61.53/bbl. Copper is off its intraday low but still down 0.2% and iron ore is $99-100/t.
- Today Westpac’s March leading indicator prints.
JGB TECHS: (M5) Off Highs, But Underlying Strength Persists
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 142.95 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 140.32 @ 15:50 GMT Apr 15
- SUP 1: 139.52 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs are extending the strong bullish reversal, rejecting any test of fresh cycle lows for the M5 contract. This defies the bearish momentum studies drawn on the longer-term chart, clearing moving-average resistance to print 142.40 at the new upper level. To the downside, sights are on 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. 144.48 is the medium-term target on any recovery.
