JPY: USD/JPY Re-Correlates With Stocks, Resistance Seen Scant
Feb-26 15:11
- Best volumes of the US and European sessions go through on the latest move in USD/JPY, although participation was seen stronger during Tokyo trade. Nonetheless, the pair edges to a new daily high - a move that goes someway to pausing the bearish phase that kicked off on the break of Y151.00 to the downside.
- A close above 148.57 today would confirm an end to the run of lower lows in the pair - which will raise questions about the possibility of a sustainable bounce in prices in the near-term. The recovery off lows for the pair has mirrored the corrective bounce in equities - particularly in the US, suggesting and return lower for the e-mini S&P could hinder any further recovery.
- We note USD/JPY has often been in demand in the early hours of the Asia-Pac session in recent weeks - particularly when following a sharper phase of selling in US hours. With the price now ~125 pips above yesterday's lows, markets will be watching for any continuation of this trend, particularly as resistance is seen scant into 150.74, the high from Feb 21.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Pullback Extends
Jan-27 15:10
- RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6105.25/6162.28 Intraday high / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 6036.00 @ 14:58 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 5961.75/5948.00 Low Jan 16 / Intraday low
- SUP 2: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key support
The S&P E-Minis contract initially started the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low (pierced). For now, the move down appears corrective, however, a clear breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
BONDS: Continuing To Edge Away From Highs
Jan-27 15:07
No meaningful reaction to the U.S. housing market data
- Cross-market cues dominate, with little of note on the news front over the last few hours.
- The recovery from session lows in equities continues to push core global FI markets away from session highs.
- Market participants are still assessing the risks posed to U.S. tech by Chinese startup DeepSeek.
- U.S. Tsys remain the outperformer amongst core global FI markets,
- EGB spreads to Bunds still wider on the day but narrow from session highs as equities recover.
MNI: US DEC NEW HOME SALES +3.6% TO 0.698M SAAR
Jan-27 15:00
- MNI: US DEC NEW HOME SALES +3.6% TO 0.698M SAAR
- US NOV NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 0.674M SAAR
