JPY: USD/JPY - Grinds Higher Following The USD
The overnight range was 147.16 - 147.78, Asia is currently trading around 147.75. USD/JPY kept the pressure on JPY longs extending above 147.00. The USD/JPY relentless march higher has been pretty telling, challenging a market positioned the wrong way. Price is now consolidating some of those recent gains, dips back towards 146.00 should now find support first up. CFTC Data shows leveraged funds have pared back their JPY longs almost back to flat, Asset managers have pared back some of their position but still continue to run a decent sized long JPY position.
- (Bloomberg) - “The BOJ’s next rate hike shouldn’t come until next year, when officials have more information on the state of the economy, according to Japan Securities Dealers Association Chairman Takashi Hibino.”
- “President Trump attacked the car trade imbalance between the US and Japan, saying “They sell us millions and millions of cars a year. We sell them no cars because they won’t accept our cars.” Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has said American cars are left-hand drive, large, and fuel inefficient, making them a tough sell in Japan.” - BBG
- USD/JPY has lost all downside momentum for now and is back in its wider 142.00 - 148.00 range. The Market is long JPY and should the USD manage to continue to correct higher the risk is a move back to the top end of the range to further challenge the conviction of the shorts.
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 146.50($1.4b July 16).
- CFTC data shows Asset managers reduced their JPY longs slightly +89331, while leveraged funds have almost squared their newly built JPY longs +5224.
- Data/Event : Core Machine Orders, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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MNI Markets Team Expectations For June 2025 Summary Of Economic Projections Medians
