FOREX: USD/JPY Firms Off Support as Ueda Not Swayed on Hike Pressures
- The USD Index trades on the back foot early Friday, fading against all others in G10 outside of the JPY. The BoJ Chair Ueda pressured the currency by stopping short of endorsing an imminent rate hike in Japan, instead reiterating the bank's guidance from their most recent meeting, despite the solid Tankan manufacturing survey data from earlier this week. Instead, Ueda affirmed the Bank would be observing and monitoring incoming datapoints to assess the October decision, for which markets see a roughly 50/50 chance of a 25bps rate hike.
- USDJPY has recovered from Wednesday's low. Recent weakness resulted in a clear breach of the 50-day EMA. This continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the key short-term pivot support at 145.49, the Sep 17 low.
- A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and yesterday's break above the late September's high, firms the bullish theme. This move higher also maintains the
bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
Sights are on 1.4019, a Fibonacci retracement point. - Today's payrolls print is extremely unlikely to go ahead - the BLS are formally in furlough - leaving focus on alternative economic data and it remains possible that proxies for initial jobless claims can be compiled using state-by-state data - but these will likely be patchy and come heavily caveated. ISM services index data today will go ahead as usual and could be a more market-moving event as a result. Our full guide to data releases during shutdown here: https://media.marketnews.com/Shutdown_Guide_Oct120252_ee7acddcc9.pdf
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FOREX: CME FX Roll update
The next positioning Roll to come will happen next Week, rolling CME FX September Positions into December, expiry will be on Monday the 15th Sep.
PACE for now:
- EUR: 5% (below Pace).
- GBP: 4% (below Pace).
- JPY: 17% (above Pace).
- CHF: 2% (below Pace).
- CAD: 3% (below Pace).
- AUD: 6% (above Pace).
- NZD: 2% (below Pace).
- SEK: 2% (below Pace).
- NOK: 2% (below Pace).
GBP: Options Augur Against GBP, Highlighting S/T Downside Risks
- The growing negative correlation between longer-end yields and GBP is extending this morning. The recent drop in spot and renewed fiscal concerns are supporting a bid in vols: 3m implied has been marked higher to 8 points this morning, erasing the summer lull and returning above the YTD average of 7.8 points (which is already well above 2024's 6.9 points).
- In tandem, the front end of the GBP risk reversals curve has deteriorated: dropping to lowest since March against USD and lowest since July against EUR - signalling decent demand for GBP downside insurance covering the rest of 2025 - despite the continued pricing-out of further rate cuts into year-end 2025.
- GBP options activity was ahead of average yesterday, and that trend's persisted into Wednesday: decent demand for downside exposure is the driver here. So far today, close to $4 in puts have traded for every $1 in calls, with 1.31 and 1.29 put strikes garnering the most notable interest. Some of the more sizeable trades across these strikes are consistent with put spreads targeting an October/November expiry - so rolling off just prior to the UK Budget on November 26th with a break-even below ~1.3025 at expiry.
- As a result, the GBPUSD vol surface is leaning further in favour of OTM puts, tipping the GBPUSD SMILE to its sharpest skew since the April Liberation Day vol episode. This raises the risk of GBP/USD downside in the coming months, isolating 1.3144/42 as key support - the 38.2% retracement for the YTD upleg, as well as the August 1st low.
- Scrutiny over UK press will now increase: policy proposals are usually floated in the media ahead of the Budget - allowing ministers to phase-in any fiscal bad news and retain rabbit-in-the-hat style positive policy surprises on Budget Day itself.
COMMODITIES: Gold Remains in a Clear Bull Cycle
A bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to be a correction. This short-term corrective cycle remains in play and Tuesday’s rally reinforces this theme. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low. Gold remains in a clear bull cycle. This week’s gains have resulted in a breach of key resistance at $3500.1, the Apr 22 high, and delivered a fresh all-time high in the yellow metal. The break confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is the $3600.00 handle. Initial firm support to watch lies at $3396.2, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.15 or -0.23% at $65.43
- Natural Gas down $0.03 or -1.1% at $2.976
- Gold spot up $7.24 or +0.2% at $3540.08
- Copper down $0 or 0% at $464.05
- Silver down $0.07 or -0.17% at $40.7962
- Platinum down $14.54 or -1.03% at $1396.04
