IDR: USD/IDR Eyeing 200-day EMA Test, Cross Asset Trends Support IDR
USD/IDR sits near 16240 in latest dealings, close to the 200-day EMA support zone, which rests near 16240. This is also the region that marked earlier August lows. Going back to late May of this year, USD/IDR spot hasn't been able to sustain tests under this support zone. We have to go back to November last year to be meaningful sub this support zone, see the chart below.
- Cross asset trends point to a test below this support level. Global equity sentiment has been boosted by Fed easing expectations, which is something the IDR can benefit from (even if US real 10yr yields remain elevated).
- Local stocks are also surging higher, which offshore investors are coming back into local stocks. Other measures like Indonesia 5yr CDS, are also tracking lower, albeit still up from recent lows.
- Seasonality headwinds may persist, which get worse into September. Using the last 10yrs as a sample period, IDR has only risen in two Septembers'. BI may also like to support lower USD levels by replenishing FX reserves, although this may happen at lower USD/IDR levels. After all IDR has remained a laggard in Asia FX so far this year, down 0.85% (only outperforming HKD and INR).
Fig 1: USD/IDR Versus Key EMAs
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
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POLITICAL RISK: Trump To Announce 'Aggressive' Ukraine Weapons Plan - Axios
Headlines have crossed from Axios that US President Trump will announce an 'aggressive' Ukraine weapons plan Monday. See this link for more details (via BBG). This follows remarks from an interview late last week, where Trump said (to NBC) he would be making a major announcement on Monday with regards to Russia.
- Axios notes (via BBG): "President Trump will announce a new plan to arm Ukraine on Monday that is expected to include offensive weapons, two sources with knowledge of the plans tell Axios."
- It adds: "Sending offensive weapons would be a major shift for Trump, who had until recently been at pains to say he would provide only defensive weapons to avoid escalating the conflict."
- And "The new initiative, which will be rolled out in a meeting between Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, will involve European countries paying for U.S.-made weapons that will be sent to Ukraine."
- It was reported earlier that Trump would meet with the Secretary General of NATO at 10am ET.
- Earlier Trump remarked that he is very disappointed with Russian President Putin. He has made this point on numerous occasions in recent weeks, given lack of progress around Ukraine/Russia peace talks.
MNI: CHINA JUN EXPORTS +5.8% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +5.2% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA JUN EXPORTS +5.8% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +5.2% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA JUN IMPORTS +1.1% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +0.5% Y/Y: CUSTOMS
- CHINA JUN TRADE SURPLUS +$114.8 BLN VS MEDIAN +$113.2 BLN
JGBS: Cheaper With 10Y Leading, BoJ Holdings Of Bank Shares Hits Zero
At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are sharply weaker and hovering near session lows, -42 compared to settlement levels.
- (RTRS) “Japan's central bank may face political pressure to keep interest rates low for longer than it wants, as opposition parties favouring tax cuts and loose monetary policy are expected to gain influence after a July 20 election.”
- (Bloomberg) " The Bank of Japan finished selling millions of dollars of stocks it bought from besieged banks, ending a nearly two decade process. The BOJ's holdings of the shares purchased from banks hit zero as of July 10, falling from ¥2.5 billion 10 days ago, according to its balance sheet report."
- Cash US tsys are slightly mixed in today's Asia-Pac session, with yields 1bp lower to 1bp higher.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 4bps cheaper across benchmarks, with the 20-year leading. The benchmark 10-year yield is 4.3bps higher at 2.558% versus the cycle high of 2.605%.
- Swap rates are little changed. Swap spreads are mostly tighter.
