IDR: USDIDR Can't Hold Early Gains, Back Above 16,600
Oct-30 03:46
- Early dealing saw USDIDR open stronger, only to fade again as it has done in recent days.
- Up +16 at 16,632, the Rupiah has lost ground by +0.10% and a second successive day of losses.
- The BI has not been visible in recent days in support of the Rupiah, despite saying recently that their goal was to stabilize the currency around 16,300.
- At 16,632 it is at the weakest level since the start of the month and despite a surprise hold by the BI, show signs of slipping away further.
The bond market is weak on global moves with the 10-Yr up +4bps and consolidating above 6% at 6.05% whilst the JCI is up modestly by +022%
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CHINA: Bond Futures Rise in Morning Trade
Sep-30 03:22
- After doing very little Monday, bond futures have started Tuesday off with a rally.
- The 10-Yr is up +0.10 at 107.76 and is near to the 20-day EMA of 107.81
- The 2-Yr future is up +0.01 at 102.35 and is near the 20-day EMA of 102.36.
- The 10-Yr government bond is at 1.88%
JGBS: Bull-Flattener Holding At Lunch, BOJ SOO: No Clear Hint For Oct Hike
Sep-30 02:38
At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are stronger, +9 compared to settlement levels.
- MNI - Bank of Japan board members were split over whether to raise the policy rate at the September 18-19 meeting, with some calling for more data and others pushing for an increase, the summary of opinions released Tuesday showed. The disclosures gave no clear signal of an October move, with most members aside from Naoki Tamura and Hajime Takata - who dissented and proposed a hike - seeing little urgency.
- MNI - Japan's industrial output fell 1.2% m/m in August, marking a second straight decline after July's 1.2% drop, as stronger automobile production was offset by weakness in electrical machinery and information and communications equipment, data from the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry showed Tuesday.
- Industrial output is a key indicator for BOJ economists tracking the pace of Japan's modest recovery as it reflects both external and domestic demand.
- Cash US tsys are slightly cheaper, with a steepening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session after yesterday's bull-flattener.
- Cash JGBs have bull-flattened across benchmarks, with yields flat to 3bps richer. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.2bps lower at 1.631% versus the cycle high of 1.670%.
- Swap rates are little changed.
STIR: RBA Dated OIS Sharply Firmer Than August CPI Levels
Sep-30 02:29
Ahead of today’s RBA policy decision, RBA-dated OIS pricing is sharply firmer across 2026 meetings versus last Wednesday’s CPI levels.
- The headline August CPI print was 3.0%y/y, against a 2.9% market consensus and 2.8% July outcome. The trimmed mean was 2.6% y/y, after printing 2.7% in July.
- The Q3 CPI print is out on Oct 29, with the RBA outcome on Nov 4.
- A 25bp rate cut today is given a 3% probability, with a cumulative 17bps of easing priced by year-end.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Pre-CPI
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
