CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Under 7.1000, Fresh YTD Lows, CNH Rallying

Oct-15 01:26

The USD/CNY fix has printed under 7.1000 for the first time this year. At 7.0995 we are well under the market expectation of 7.1320. This leaves the fixing error around recent wides at -325pips. CNH has rallied post the fixing outcome and broader USD sentiment is also softer. 

  • Today's fixing outcome will reinforce the resilient yuan backdrop even in the face of renewed US-China tensions. This point is reinforced by the chart below, which plots the USD/CNY fixing against the BBDXY index.
  • For USD/CNH, we are back under 7.1300, which isn't too far from recent lows (7.1240). Focus will be on whether we can test back under 7.1000. This may be a bridge too far in the near term, until we see greater clarity on the US-China outlook. Still, today's fixing is likely to help cap the topside around the 7.1500 region. 

Fig 1: USD/CNY Fixing Versus BBDXY Index 

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Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI 

Historical bullets

CHINA: Central Bank Injects CNY88.5bn via OMO

Sep-15 01:23
  • The PBOC issued CNY280bn of 7-day reverse repo at 1.4% during this morning's operations.
  • Today's maturities CNY191.5bn.
  • Net liquidity injects CNY88.5bn.
  • The PBOC monitors and maintains liquidity in the interbank system through the issuance of reverse repo.
  • The CFETS Pledged Repo Deposit Institutions 7 Day Weighted is at 1.42%, from prior close of 1.45%.
  • The China overnight interbank repo rate is at 1.40%, from the prior close of 1.41%.
  • The China 7-day interbank repo rate is at 1.50%, from the prior close of 1.45%.
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MNI: CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY280 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPO MON

Sep-15 01:21
  • CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY280 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPO MON

CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1056 MON VS 7.1019

Sep-15 01:19
  • CHINA SETS YUAN CENTRAL PARITY AT 7.1056 MON VS 7.1019