CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Lower, Error Term Slightly Higher

Q3 wages rose 0.8% q/q to be 3.4% higher on a year ago, in line with Q2 and Bloomberg consensus, signalling a stabilisation consistent with SEEK advertised salary data. In November, the RBA forecast 3.4% y/y for Q4 2025 before moderating to 3% by end 2026. Thus, the Q3 WPI data don’t change the outlook for monetary policy with rates likely on hold towards at least mid-2026 as it monitors price and capacity pressures.

Australia wages ex bonuses y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/SEEK/ABS

• Private sector wage inflation moderated to 3.2% y/y (+0.7% q/q) from 3.4% in Q2 and 3.5% in Q3 2024. This is the slowest rate since Q2 2022. Private wages peaked in Q4 2023 at 4.2% and have been trending lower since.
• The proportion of private sector jobs receiving a pay increase in Q3 has been fairly stable since the end of the pandemic but the size of the rise is trending down due to the moderation in minimum/award wage increases. On July 1 they rose 3.5% down from 3.75% in 2024 and 5.75% in 2023. In Q3 2025, the share of jobs with a rise was 47% after 49% in Q3 2024 with the average increase at 3.6% down from 3.9% in Q3 2024.
• Public sector pay also began to moderate in 2024 but has turned higher over this year. In Q3 it rose 0.9% q/q & 3.8% y/y up from 3.6% in Q2 and 3.7% in Q2 2024, the highest since Q2 2024.
• In Q3, 33% of public jobs received a pay rise (Q3 2024 30%) with the average increase at 3.1% up from Q3 2024’s 3.0%.
• The share of jobs receiving large wage gains is also moderating with 24% obtaining a rise above 4% down from 31% in Q3 2024. 

Australia private vs public sector wages y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News/ABS

Bitcoin had a range overnight of $89,262.59k - $93,763.50k, Asia is currently trading around $92,450k, +0.05%. Bitcoin tried and failed to break through the pivotal $90k area yesterday, solid demand has seen the price eventually stabilise. Technically this still looks pretty poor though it might bounce from here but I suspect rallies will continue to be sold into initially. Look for rallies toward $105K to initially find sellers again  in the short-term while the bears remain in control. A sustained break below $90k is needed for the market to then target levels back toward $65-$75k. The Nvidia earnings report tomorrow morning is set to dictate the short-term direction for risk.

• Bitcoin’s Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 3,820 Points
• Bob Elliott points out on X that, “Even with the recent declines most investors in Bitcoin ETFs are in the black.  A move below 80k will wipe out their gains in aggregate.” See Graph Below.

Fig 1: Bitcoin spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

The overnight range was 2.0198 - 2.0318, Asia is trading around 2.0215. The pair stalled again testing some tough resistance just ahead of 2.0400. While risk remains under pressure expect the AUD to underperform in the crosses but should GBP/AUD get back toward the 2.0500 level I would be skewed towards fading the move at the first attempt. On the day it looks like we might consolidate as the market awaits the Nvidia earnings result tomorrow morning to give risk some direction. The range looks to be 2.0000-2.0400 for now with a bias to be skewed from the short side on bounces.

• The GBP/AUD Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 145 Points

Fig 1: GBP/AUD spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P