CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Edges Up But Still Down For the Week
The USD/CNY fix printed at 7.0880, a touch above yesterday's 7.0864 outcome (the error term was wider at -310pips, from -201pips yesterday). The fixing is showing modest sensitivity to higher USD index levels, but note that last Friday's fixing was 7.0928, while the BBDXY index is up around 0.35% over the same period. Spot USD/CNH is a little higher post the fixing, last near 7.1115, but we have also had a weaker manufacturing PMI print cross as well (49.0, versus 49.6 forecast). With the US-China meeting now out of the way we may see a consolidation phase, although given the fixing trends, moves up to the 20 day EMA (7.1210) may still draw selling interest. Only a move above the 50-day, around 7.1335 is likely to challenge the bearish narrative in the pair.
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STIR: RBA Dated OIS’ Firming Since August CPI Extends After RBA Decision
RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed modestly across meetings following yesterday’s RBA Policy Decision.
- At the time of writing, pricing across meetings was 1-4bps firmer than yesterday’s pre-RBA levels.
- Notably, this post-RBA move leaves pricing some 10-19bps firmer than last Wednesday’s pre-CPI levels.
- A 25bp rate cut in October is given a 35% probability, with a cumulative 11bps of easing priced by year-end.
Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current Vs. Pre-CPI
Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI
CRYPTO: Ethereum - Bounces, Technically $4300-$4500 To Be Faded First Up
Ethereum had a range overnight of $4093.19 - $4208.98, Asia is trading around $4152, -1.05%. Ethereum had a decent bounce after triggering stop losses sub $4000 last week. Having broken big support around $4100, technically rallies should now be faded initially. The first sell zone is now back towards the $4300/$4500 area.
- Menthor Q on X: "Crypto asset flows. "Digital asset investment products saw US$812m in outflows last week, though YTD inflows remain robust at US$39.6bn, close to last year’s record ... Bitcoin (-US$719m) and Ethereum (-US$409m) faced pressure, while Solana (+US$291m) attracted strong inflows.”
- Milk Road on X: “For a decade, crypto has moved in 2yr up / 2yr down cycles, pointing to a 2025 peak. But the data just shifted. PMI, liquidity, and analysts all say the cycle hasn’t ended, it’s been extended. The top now looks more like 2026… or later”
- “FTX will release $1.6B in stablecoins to creditors today. That’s $1.6B in fresh liquidity about to hit the crypto markets. Fresh powder is on the way.”
Fig 1: Ethereum spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
ASIA: Outflows dominate again
- South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$114m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$359m. 2025 to date flows are -$805m. The 5-day average is -$72m, the 20-day average is +$250m and the 100-day average of +$111m.
- Taiwan: Had inflows of +$249m yesterday, with total outflows of -$807 m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are positive at +$7,434m. The 5-day average is -$161m, the 20-day average of +$385m and the 100-day average of +$219m.
- India: Had outflows of -$153m as of the 29th, with total outflows of -$1,702m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$17,000m. The 5-day average is -$340m, the 20-day average of -$135m and the 100-day average of -$53m.
- Indonesia: Had outflows of -$102m yesterday, with total outflows of -$125m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$3,307m. The 5-day average is -$25m, the 20-day average -$5m and the 100-day average -$2m.
- Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$11m as of the 29th, with outflows totaling -$1m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,764m. The 5-day average is $0m, the 20-day average of -$13m and the 100-day average of -$11m.
- Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$13m yesterday, totaling -$79m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,743m. The 5-day average is -$16m, the 20-day average of -$5m and the 100-day average of -$12m.
- Philippines: Recorded outflows of -$35m yesterday, with net outflows of -$48m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$651m. The 5-day average is -$10m, the 20-day average of +$3m the 100-day average of -$4m.
