CNH: USD/CNY Fixing Edges Up But Still Down For the Week

RBA-dated OIS pricing has firmed modestly across meetings following yesterday’s RBA Policy Decision.  

• At the time of writing, pricing across meetings was 1-4bps firmer than yesterday’s pre-RBA levels.
• Notably, this post-RBA move leaves pricing some 10-19bps firmer than last Wednesday’s pre-CPI levels.
• A 25bp rate cut in October is given a 35% probability, with a cumulative 11bps of easing priced by year-end.

Figure 1: RBA-Dated OIS – Current Vs. Pre-CPI

Source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI

Ethereum had a range overnight of $4093.19 - $4208.98, Asia is trading around $4152, -1.05%. Ethereum had a decent bounce after triggering stop losses sub $4000 last week. Having broken big support around $4100, technically rallies should now be faded initially. The first sell zone is now back towards the $4300/$4500 area. 

• Menthor Q on X: "Crypto asset flows. "Digital asset investment products saw US$812m in outflows last week, though YTD inflows remain robust at US$39.6bn, close to last year’s record ... Bitcoin (-US$719m) and Ethereum (-US$409m) faced pressure, while Solana (+US$291m) attracted strong inflows.”
• Milk Road on X: “For a decade, crypto has moved in 2yr up / 2yr down cycles, pointing to a 2025 peak. But the data just shifted. PMI, liquidity, and analysts all say the cycle hasn’t ended, it’s been extended. The top now looks more like 2026… or later”
• “FTX will release $1.6B in stablecoins to creditors today. That’s $1.6B in fresh liquidity about to hit the crypto markets. Fresh powder is on the way.”

Fig 1: Ethereum spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$114m yesterday,  bringing the 5-day total to -$359m. 2025 to date flows are -$805m. The 5-day average is -$72m, the 20-day average is +$250m and the 100-day average of +$111m.
• Taiwan: Had inflows of +$249m yesterday, with total outflows of -$807 m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are positive at +$7,434m. The 5-day average is -$161m, the 20-day average of +$385m and the 100-day average of +$219m.
• India: Had outflows of -$153m as of the 29th, with total outflows of -$1,702m over the past 5 days.  YTD flows are negative -$17,000m.  The 5-day average is -$340m, the 20-day average of -$135m and the 100-day average of -$53m.
• Indonesia: Had outflows of -$102m yesterday, with total outflows of -$125m over the prior five days.  YTD flows are negative -$3,307m.  The 5-day average is -$25m, the 20-day average -$5m and the 100-day average -$2m.
• Thailand: Recorded outflows of -$11m as of the 29th, with outflows totaling -$1m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,764m. The 5-day average is $0m, the 20-day average of -$13m and the 100-day average of -$11m.
• Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$13m yesterday, totaling -$79m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$3,743m. The 5-day average is -$16m, the 20-day average of -$5m and the 100-day average of -$12m.
• Philippines: Recorded outflows of -$35m yesterday,  with net outflows of -$48m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$651m. The 5-day average is -$10m, the 20-day average of +$3m the 100-day average of -$4m.