CNH: USD/CNH Testing 200-day EMA Support On Trade Talk Optimism

AUD and NZD are outperforming in the first part of Wednesday trade, both pairs up around 0.35-0.40% versus the USD. Yen is down marginally versus the dollar. The USD BBDXY index is down a touch form end NY levels on Tuesday, last near 1272.4. 

• Direct catalysts for these moves aren't readily apparent. As we noted earlier, some of the new wires reports around potentially lower than 20% tariffs being considered (per WSJ) by the US administration, along with that Wednesday's announcement will present a cap for tariffs, (via CNBC) are potential risk positives.
• Still, US equity futures are off earlier highs, and in the red for the session so far. Regional Asia Pac equity markets are mostly higher, although gains aren't large at this stage and Japan and South Korea markets are still lower.  
• A tick up in US yields is also likely presenting as a yen headwind. USD/JPY was last 149.75/80.
• AUD/USD is back close to 0.6300, while NZD/USD has risen to 0.5720/25, slightly outperforming the A$.  
• NZD/JPY is tracking back towards 85.75, which is around the 20-day EMA, the 50-day is close to 86.20. AUD/JPY is last at 94.30/35, also testing 20-day EMA resistance, with the 50-day resistance point near 95.05.  

As the world awaits news on tariffs from the White House, flow data is disrupted at present due to South East Asian holidays, whilst outflows from Korea continue. 

• South Korea: Recorded outflows of -$269m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$1,669m. 2025 to date flows are -$5,578m. The 5-day average is -$334m, the 20-day average is -$82m and the 100-day average of -$103m.
• Taiwan: Had inflows of +$23m yesterday, with total outflows of -$3,161m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$18,266. The 5-day average is -$632m, the 20-day average of -$534m and the 100-day average of -$257m.
• India: Saw inflows of +$947m as of the 27th, with a total inflow of +$3,231m over the previous 5 days. YTD outflows stand at -$12,796m. The 5-day average is  +$646m, the 20-day average of -$14m and the 100-day average of -$144m.
• Indonesia: Saw inflows of $38m as of the 27th, with a total inflow of +$54m over the previous 5 days.  YTD outflows stand at -$1,830m.  The 5-day average is +$11m, the 20-day average of -$33m and the 100-day average of -$34m.
• Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$42m yesterday, totaling -$39m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,130m. The 5-day average is -$8m, the 20-day average of -$27m the 100-day average of -$18m.
• Malaysia: Recorded outflows of -$87m as of 28th, totaling -$2,60m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,242m. The 5-day average is -$52m, the 20-day average of -$59m the 100-day average of -$36m.
• Philippines: Saw inflows of +$4m as of 31st, with net outflows of -$26m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$209m. The 5-day average is -$5m, the 20-day average of +$2m the 100-day average of -$7m.