CNH: USD/CNH Near 7.2700, Onshore Markets Closed For Labor Day Holidays

Japan's jobless rate for Feb ticked down to 2.4%, versus a 2.5% forecast and 2.5% (which was also the prior outcome). This puts the jobless rate back at 2024 lows, which was fresh cycle lows back to late 2019. This indicates a still tight labor market for Japan. 

• The job-to-applicant ratio painted a less positive picture though. It eased to 1.24, versus a 1.26 forecast and prior 1.26 outcome. The chart below plots this index, which is inverted on the chart, against the jobless rate. the two series are diverging somewhat from norms, as we usually see a higher job-to-applicant ratio associated with lower unemployment rates.
• The new job-to-applicant ratio also ticked down, but remains close to recent highs. 

Fig 1: Japan Jobless Rate & Job-To-Applicant Ratio (Inverted) Diverging Somewhat 

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg 

In post-Tokyo trade, JGB futures closed weaker, -9 compared to settlement levels.

• February’s Jobless Rate and Job-To-Applicant Ratio have printed showing 2.4% and 1.24 respectively versus estimates of 2.5% and 1.26 and priors 2.5% and 1.26.
• The BoJ announced late yesterday that it would curb super-long bond buys (see this BBG link, ICMYI).
• Overnight, US tsys finished the NY session modestly richer but mid-range, with the 10-year yield 4bps lower at 4.21% and the 2-year at 3.89%, -3bps.
• Month/quarter end rebalancing flow tempered Monday morning's risk-off support ahead of Wednesday's US tariff deadline, with the 10-year yield 4bps lower at 4.21% and the 2-year at 3.89%, -3bps.
• Multiple reports suggested that Trump may be pressing his team to devise an aggressive 'Liberation Day' tariff plan that applies to more countries than anticipated.
• There was little reaction to the slightly higher-than-expected Chicago PMI data, with the barometer advancing 2.1 points to 47.6 in March.
• Little news from late session Fed speakers Williams and Barkin: "We need an open mind about how long tariff impacts last," Williams said, while "to cut rates, we got to have confidence in inflation."
• Today, the local calendar will also see the Tankan Survey and Jibun Bank PMI Mfg data.

• MNI JAPAN FEB JOBLESS RATE FALLS TO 2.4% FROM JAN 2.5%