CNH: USD/CNH Makes Another Fresh Low, Downside Focus Remains On 7.00

In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed weaker by -6 compared to settlement levels, after US tsys finished with a modest bear-steepener.

• With the US federal government shutdown now over, some postponed data is starting to come into view, with the BLS scheduling September's delayed nonfarm payrolls report for next Thursday.
• Friday's Fed commentary (with the usual exception of Gov Miran) was hawkish, with Dallas's Logan and KC's Schmid reiterating their opposition to a December rate cut, largely out of concern over entrenched inflation. A December cut remained around 50/50 priced.
• "The Finance Ministry plans an economic package worth about ¥17 trillion ($110 billion), the Nikkei reported on Saturday, without identifying its sources. The supplementary budget to fund the spending is expected to reach about ¥14 trillion, exceeding last year’s ¥13.9 trillion compiled under former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, the report said." - BBG
• Today, the local calendar will feature Q3 GDP (P), Capu (Sep), IP (Sep), and 10-year Inflation-Linked supply.
• MNI: Japan Q3 GDP - Growth is projected to be negative in the quarter, amid weaker business spending and a drag .

• RES 3: 95.982 - 76.4% retracement Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg
• RES 2: 95.960 - High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 1: 95.900 - High Oct 17
• PRICE: 95.530 @ 15:33 GMT Nov 14
• SUP 1: 95.510 - Low Sep 3  
• SUP 2: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14 
• SUP 3: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support

Aussie 10-yr futures slipped lower again overnight on the back of hotter-than-expected jobs data, compounding the impact of the inflation data earlier in the month. The sustainability of the pullback will be dependent on prices holding above key short-term support at 95.510, the Sep 3 low. Near-term resistance remains 95.780, the Sep 12 high. A clear break of this level signals scope for a continuation higher and opens 95.960, the 76.4% retracement level for the Sep’24 - Nov’24 downleg. 

TYZ5 is dealing at 112-18, +0-01 from closing levels in today's Asia-Pac session.

• MNI Tech: US tsy futures (TYZ5) have once again challenged resistance at the 113-02 level, an area of congestion since Nov 5. A clear move above this hurdle would be a bullish signal and shift focus on resistance at 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. A break would also cancel a short-term bear theme. For bears, reversal lower would instead open 112-10, the 100-DMA and 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support lies at 112-04+.
• On Friday, US tsys finished showing a modest bear-steeper, with benchmark yields 1-4bps higher.
• With the US federal government shutdown now over, some postponed data is starting to come into view, with the BLS scheduling September's delayed nonfarm payrolls report for next Thursday, and the Census Bureau set to publish some delayed August data next week. Still, there's no official word on the fate of the October CPI release, which looks very likely to be cancelled altogether.
• Bitcoin has opened below $95k, with the technical setup looking a little ominous short-term. This could add to the current broader market malaise.