USD/CNH maintained tight ranges post the Asia close on Thursday and tracks near 7.2060/65 in early Friday dealings. There was a slight downside bias, as US yields fell amid softer data outcomes, but CNH gained less than 0.10% for Thursday's session. The BBDXY index edged down 0.21%, although largely tracked sideways post the Asia close. Safe havens CHF and JPY outperformed in the G10 space. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.2074, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker lost a further 0.28% to 96.81 (per BBG). Recent lows for the index were sub 96.00.
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Aussie 3-yr futures ripped to new contract highs again to begin last week - clearing resistance on the continuation contract. The rally has taken out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, any reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of a downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low.
Overnight, the whole milk powder auction saw the average price rise to $4171/Mt from $4062/MT at the previous auction. This was a 2.7% increase from the early April result, with auctions run twice per month. In level terms we are back close to earlier 2025 highs. Cycle highs in early 2022 were just above $4750. BBG noted GDT's weighted average price for all milk products was $4,385 a ton, a +3% increase.
Fig 1: Whole Milk Power Auction Result Versus Citi NZD Terms of Trade Proxy
Source: Citi/MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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