CNH: USD/CNH Holding Near 7.2100, New Loans Weaker In April

• RES 3: 97.190 - High May 5 2023
• RES 2: 96.932 - 76.4% of Mar-Nov ‘23 bear leg 
• RES 1: 96.860 - High Apr 07
• PRICE: 96.660 @ 15:39 GMT Apr 14
• SUP 1: 95.900 - Low Jan 14  
• SUP 2: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24
• SUP 3: 95.480 - Low Jan 11 2023 and a major support 

Aussie 3-yr futures ripped to new contract highs again to begin last week - clearing resistance on the continuation contract. The rally has taken out resistance at 96.730, the Sep 17 ‘24 high. On the downside, any reversal lower from current levels would signal a resumption of a downtrend. A deeper sell-off would refocus attention on 95.760, the 14 Nov ‘24 low. 

AUD/USD tracks near 0.6320/25 in early Tuesday dealings. The A$ gained a little over 0.60% for Monday's session, with higher beta plays mostly outperforming. The yen also posted gains, but lagged NOK, NZD and AUD. The generally better risk tone in global equities, amid tariff relief/exemption hopes for key sectors, aided these FX trends. 

• For AUD/USD technicals, we ran out of steam above 0.6340, but was supported sub 0.6280. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 0.6265. The break of this average strengthens the reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher, towards 0.6389, the Apr 3 high and the next important resistance. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. First support lies at 0.6222, the 20-day EMA.
• US equity markets finished off highs, the SPX up 0.79%, following Friday's 1.81% gain. US President Trump said he was "exploring possible exemptions to his tariffs on imported vehicles and parts", which follows Friday's news around key electronics tariff exemptions (at least for now).
• US Tsy Scott Bessent also played down bond market turmoil and stated that the VIX index has likely peaked (per BBG). US yields finished lower across the board, led by the front end.
• AUD/JPY tracks near 90.40/45 in early Tuesday dealings, up modestly for Monday's session, but found selling interest above 91.00. The A$ enjoyed a better session against both EUR and CHF. EUR/AUD is back under 1.8000. AUD/CHF is near 0.5150, with recent lows close to 0.5000.
• On the data calendar today we have the RBA minutes from the April policy meeting. 

The RBNZ notes: "RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway will talk today about our forecasts in general - why the Reserve Bank forecasts, and the data, information and tools the RBNZ uses to guide us through economic uncertainty and to set the OCR appropriately. He will also explain what we are trying to convey when we publish the outlook for the OCR.

Mr Conway will present his 20-minute speech on Teams, which will be open to public and media. The text of the speech will be published on the RBNZ website when he begins speaking."

Link here from the RBNZ: Join event at 9.30am Tuesday, 15 April. (NZ time) 

The RBNZ notes: "the speech will not provide any new information about monetary policy or commentary on latest economic data."