CNH: USD/CNH Drifts Higher Post Xi-Trump Meeting, But Sub Key EMAs

Oct-30 06:49

USD/CNH is tracking higher as the market digests various comments post the Trump-Xi meeting earlier in South Korea.  The market may be trimming risk in USD/CNH as there look to be few surprises from today's meeting compared to what was known/expected before hand. We were last back near 7.1075/80, against session lows of 7.0919, while Wednesday lows were just under 7.0900. Spill over from higher USD/JPY levels, is a also a CNH headwind. On the upside the 20-day and 50-day EMAs rest at 7.1215 to 7.1340 for USD/CNH. We would have to break back above the 50-day EMA to shift downtrend thinking in the pair. 

  • Much of the points that Trump stressed that were agreed upon, were largely known prior to today's outcome. Notably the tariff rate China now faces is 47%, down from 57% (with fentanyl related tariffs to be cut to 10% from 20%). The WSJ reported earlier this week that this was likely, (although it stated that the average tariff rate would come down to about 45%). Trump also stated the pause China rare earth export controls and returning soy bean purchases (which were again known).   
  • From the China side, it was stressed many areas of cooperation with the US that China is willing to work on (trade, energy etc). Xi also noted follow up should commence ASAP. 

Historical bullets

MNI: FRANCE SEP FLASH HICP -1.1% M/M, +1.1% Y/Y

Sep-30 06:45
  • MNI: FRANCE SEP FLASH HICP -1.1% M/M, +1.1% Y/Y
  • FRANCE SEP FLASH CPI -1.0% M/M, +1.2% Y/Y

MNI: FRANCE AUG CONSUMER SPEND +0.1% M/M, -0.8% Y/Y (VS -0.6% M/M, -0.4% Y/Y JUL)

Sep-30 06:45
  • MNI: FRANCE AUG CONSUMER SPEND +0.1% M/M, -0.8% Y/Y (VS -0.6% M/M, -0.4% Y/Y JUL)

MNI: FRANCE AUG PPI -0.2% M/M, +0.1% Y/Y (VS +0.5% M/M, +0.5% Y/Y JUL)

Sep-30 06:45
  • MNI: FRANCE AUG PPI -0.2% M/M, +0.1% Y/Y (VS +0.5% M/M, +0.5% Y/Y JUL)