CNH: USD/CNH Consolidates Post Sharp Dec Downtrend, CNY Basket Higher

While there is some Q3 data out this week, there are also some monthly data to gauge the progress of the recovery in Q4. Bloomberg includes a media Q&A by new RBNZ Governor Breman for Wednesday at 0810 NZDT.

• Q3 manufacturing activity and volumes print on Thursday ahead of 18 December’s Q3 GDP print. The sector shrank around 3% q/q in Q2 and contributed to the sharp 0.9% q/q contraction in GDP.
• On Friday the Business NZ manufacturing PMI for November is released and Monday 15 December for the performance of services index. In October, manufacturing printed its fourth consecutive month at 50 or above, while services returned to growth for the first time since November 2024.
• Card spending data have remained lacklustre and underperformed the official quarterly retail sales figures. Q3 values rose 1.7% q/q and volumes a robust 1.9% q/q. November card transactions are published on Friday. 
• October net migration is published on Wednesday.

• MNI JAPAN Q3 GDP REV -0.6% Q/Q; PRELIM -0.4%; MEDIAN -0.5%
• JAPAN Q3 ANNUALIZED GDP REV -2.3%; PRELIM -1.8%; MEDIAN -2.2%

The Australian Office of Financial Management (AOFM) will today sell A$300mn of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 Treasury Bond. The line was last sold on 18 November 2025 for A$300mn. Several key factors will likely shape investor demand at today’s auction: 

• The bond’s outright yield is at a fresh cycle high, 20bps higher than the previous auction.
• Sentiment toward longer-dated global bonds has improved recently, which may add to demand.
• However, the 10s/30s yield curve is around 10bps flatter than the previous outing and almost 30bps below its recent high, its steepest level since 2021 — a potentially negative technical factor.
• Overall, pricing is expected to remain firm, underpinned by a stable yield profile and a more attractive curve backdrop.
• Results are due at 0000 GMT / 1100 AEST.