CHILE: USDCLP Trend Condition Remains Bearish, Nov. PPI Expected
Dec-24 11:21
- USDCLP held just above post-election cycle lows yesterday, as the peso remained supported by continued gains in copper prices. Further gains in copper today may keep the peso on the front-foot, although any moves are likely to be limited in thin Christmas markets.
- The trend condition in USDCLP remains bearish, and the fresh cycle low recently reinforces the bearish theme. Scope is seen for a move towards 900.00, a psychological level, ahead of 891.28, the Sep 27 ‘24 low, and 881.73, the May 20 ‘24 low and a key medium-term support.
- After meeting with Ecuador President Noboa yesterday, President-elect Jose Antonio Kast said that a new era of relations between Chile and Ecuador had begun. Kast said the two had a pleasant conversation where they discussed common challenges they face including on security, immigration and trade and economic development.
- Today, November PPI data cross at 1200GMT(0700ET). Last month, producer prices rose by 3.5% m/m, following a 1.7% m/m gain in September. In annual terms, PPI inflation edged up further to 9.7% y/y in October, from 9.5% previously.
- Nov. PPI MoM, prior 3.5%
- After today, the calendar is clear until month-end activity data including retail sales, IP, and copper production next week. Unemployment data for November also cross next week.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Theme
Nov-24 11:20
- RES 4: 114-02 High Oct 17 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 113-29 High Oct 22
- RES 2: 113-18+ High Oct 28
- RES 1: 113-14 High Nov 21
- PRICE: 113-10 @ 11:09 GMT Nov 24
- SUP 1: 112-11+/09 100-dma / Trendline drawn from the May 22 low
- SUP 2: 112-06 Low Sep 25 and a key support
- SUP 3: 111-31 Low Sep 2
- SUP 4: 111-23 50.0% retracement of the May 22 - Oct 17 bull leg
A bullish theme in Treasuries remains intact. Last week’s breach of resistance at 113-02, an area of congestion since Nov 5, marks a bullish development and suggests scope for a climb towards 113-18+, the Oct 28 high. Note that the move higher also cancels a recent short-term bearish theme. Key support to watch is 112-06, the Sep 25 low. Trendline support, drawn from the May 22 low, lies at 112-09.
SONIA OPTIONS: Call Spread vs Put
Nov-24 11:17
SFIM6 96.65/96.75cs v 96.20p, bought the cs for 1.25 in 8k.
US TSY OPTIONS: TUG6 104.75 Puts Sold
Nov-24 11:13
TUG6 104.75 puts ~8.8K given at 0-09+, with another ~600 trading on the follow.
