CHILE: USDCLP Rises 0.8% Amid Pullback In Copper
May-07 16:44
- The 2.7% pullback in copper prices today has weighed on the Chilean peso, which is underperforming its regional peers. USDCLP is up by around 0.8% at typing, albeit off session highs, bringing the pair back close to the 950 level.
- Despite the move, a bear threat in USDCLP remains present following recent weakness and short-term gains are considered corrective. Scope is seen for a deeper retracement towards 914.00, the Mar 18 low. Initial resistance is 961.64, the Apr 30 high, followed by 973.65, the Apr 16 high.
- Looking ahead, attention turns to tomorrow’s April CPI inflation data, where the chained measure of annual inflation is expected to dip to 4.6% y/y, from 4.9% in March. Although the BCCh expects inflation to remain high in the near-term, warranting its cautious stance, it still struck a more dovish tone at its recent MPC meeting, keeping the door open to renewed rate cuts later this year. JP Morgan expects the BCCh to resume the easing cycle in July, with the policy rate projected to converge to 4.0% by year-end.
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Apr-07 16:32
- EUR/USD: Apr10 $1.0900-10(E2.6bln), $1.0935-50(E2.4bln)
- USD/JPY: Apr09 Y147.40-50($1.1bln); Apr10 Y143.00($1.3bln)
- EUR/GBP: Apr09 Gbp0.8405-20(E1.1bln)
- AUD/USD: Apr10 $0.6400(A$1.3bln)
- USD/CAD: Apr10 C$1.4395-00($1.5bln)
- USD/CNY: Apr10 Cny7.4000($1.4bln)
US DATA: Loan Demand Pulls Back In Dallas Survey, But Still Stronger Than 23-24
Apr-07 16:27
The latest Dallas Fed banking survey, collected just shy of Liberation Day tariffs, showed a sharp deceleration in loan volume and demand growth compared to responses from six weeks ago but it was still healthier than readings through 2023-24. The balance for changes in lending standards meanwhile was similar to previous readings.
- The survey was conducted Mar 24-Apr 2 and so offers a useful update on lending trends although does of course miss out on the fallout from the significant escalation in tariffs after the Apr 2 “Liberation Day” announcement.
- Loan demand: current balance at 6.1 after 30 for its lowest since Nov but still better than a string of all but one negative readings through Oct 2022 – Nov 2024; future balance at 27.7 after 56.3 for lowest since Aug 2024.
- NPLs: current balance +19.4 after +15.7 in mid-Feb survey (highest since Nov and before that Jul). The future balance increased to +22.3 after +14.1 for its highest since Aug 2024 but it’s still well below recent highs of a net 55% in 2023 expecting NPLs to increase over the next six months.
- See the below charts for context:
ITALY T-BILL AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer this week
Apr-07 16:24
MEF has announced it will be looking to sell the following at its auction this Thursday, April 10:
- E1.5bln of the 2-month Jun 13, 2025 BOT
- E7.0bln of the new 12-month Apr 14, 2026 BOT
