CEE FX: USD/CE3 Pairs Targeting Fresh Multi-Year Lows Amid Broad Dollar Weakness
The USD Index has fallen for a second consecutive session, prompting USD/CE3 pairs to extend recent pullbacks. Yesterday's CPI print remains the primary driver for the greenback, as the data cleared the last hurdle to the Fed resuming an easing cycle from September. OIS markets are now effectively fully priced for a cut, with more than another 25bps cut set to follow before year-end.
- USDHUF is trading just above July’s 2-year low at 336.64, a break of which would resume the bearish price sequence of lower-lows and lower-highs, signalling scope for an extension lower towards the 2023 low at 331.45. A break of this level would put spot at its lowest since April 2022.
- Meanwhile, USDPLN has now pared the bulk of the late-July rally. The July 1 low at 3.5844 marks key support, and a break would put the pair at a new 7-year low. Similarly, USDCZK is probing the July multi-year low at typing.
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GERMAN T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 12-month bubills
| Type | 12-month Bubill |
| Maturity | Jul 15, 2026 |
| Allotted | E2.005bln |
| Previous | E2.445bln |
| Total sold | E3bln |
| Target | E3bln |
| Avg yield | 1.798% |
| Previous | 1.808% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.33x |
| Previous | 2.14x |
| Bid-to-offer | 1.56x |
| Previous | 1.74x |
| Previous date | Jun 16, 2025 |
GILTS: Bailey Drives Bull Steepening & Dovish Repricing
Dovish weekend commentary from BoE Governor Bailey, pointing to the potential for easier BoE policy if the labour market deteriorates quicker than the Bank expects, followed by a softer-than-expected REC Labour market report, has driven front end outperformance.
- Gilt futures have hit fresh session highs in recent trade, after briefly piercing Friday’s low early on. Contract last +10 at 91.79.
- Bears remain in technical control and eye the July 8 low (91.42). Conversely, bulls need to clear the July 10 high (92.19).
- Yields flat to 4bp lower, pre-existing July ranges intact across the curve.
- 2s10s registers the highest level since April, 79.2bp, and is on track to register the highest close of ’25. The April 9 high (84.6bp) provides the next major upside target.
- 5s30s trades back above 140bp, with the ’25 intraday high (147.2bp) providing the next upside area of interest.
- GBP STIRs react dovishly to Bailey’s comments and the subsequent REC release.
- SONIA futures now +0.5 to +6.5, SFIZ5 hit a fresh July high.
- BoE-dated OIS shows ~58bp of cuts through year-end. a reminder that moves through 55bp have failed in recent weeks, but fresh dovish signals from the Bank may make this move more meaningful.
- Inflation & labour market data, as well as the Mansion House event, present the key UK risk events this week. Please read our Global Week Ahead email for more colour on those events and expect our full preview in due course.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 3.996 | -22.1 |
Sep-25 | 3.917 | -30.1 |
Nov-25 | 3.735 | -48.2 |
Dec-25 | 3.641 | -57.7 |
Feb-26 | 3.507 | -71.0 |
Mar-26 | 3.475 | -74.2 |
EGBS: German Curve Twist Steepens, Short End Yields Lower On Tariff Fears
The German curve has lightly twist steepened, with Schatz yields down 2.5bps at 1.87% and 30-year yields up 1bp at 3.24%. Short-end yields have been pulled lower by US President Trump's 30% EU tariff announcement over the weekend. Still, dovish repricing in short-end EUR rates has been limited by (i) an escalated tariff rate already being embedded in expectations ahead of the weekend and (ii) scope for negotiations between now and August 1 resulting in a lower overall tariff rate.
- 30-year Bund yields reached a high of 3.254% this morning, partly a spillover from the latest upward pressure in long-end JGB yields.
- Bund futures are +12 at 129.29, with volumes levelling off somewhat over the last 90 minutes. A bear cycle remains intact, with initial support the intraday low of 129.11. Clearance would expose 128.97, the May 14 low.
- The EU will kick off issuance for the week today with up to E5bln of 3/9/30-year EU-bonds. The auction will be the smallest triple-tranche auction since these were launched in April.
- 10-year EGB spreads to Bunds are biased wider, with Trump’s tariff announcement denting equity risk sentiment. The BTP/Bund and OAT/Bund spreads are 1.5bps wider. There will be some focus on tomorrow’s French budget outline announcement, presenting fresh risks for OATs.
