FOREX: USD Recovers After Soft Start as Trump Sees China Tariffs Not Sustainable
Oct-17 16:22
- After a soft start to the session for risk appetite, calming words from the US President helped shore up global equities, put a floor under the USD and aide a recovery for the likes of the AUD and NZD. In an interview with Fox News, Trump stated that 100% tariffs on top of what is in place already is "not sustainable", while adding that "We have to have a fair deal" with China.
- The resulting recovery for equities helped tip futures markets in the US back into positive territory at the close, meaning the e-mini S&P should avoid a formal close below the 50-dma support at 6624.3.
- USDJPY's daily low at 149.38 is holding for now. The bounce off lows for the USD Index seemed to coincide with a bout of sales in EM currencies; most notably
the CNH, ZAR and MXN. In sympathy with JPY gains, CHF stands out: EURCHF's low print of 0.9219 is through the April low, with horizontal support expected layered between 0.9206-22. - Earnings releases really pickup next week, and particular focus may be paid to the earnings report from Zions Bancorp, who release just after the Monday close. The company's stock traded higher Friday after disclosures about loan portfolio losses Thursday - helping stem the downside in US equities ahead of the Friday close.
- Prospects of an end to the US government shutdown next week still appear slim - although it is clear pressure is beginning to build on the White House to reach a resolution: White House econ adviser Hassett noted that if the shutdown proceeds after the weekend, markets can expect Trump to begin ramping up actions toward a resolution.
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SWEDEN: Government Nudges 2026-27 GDP Forecasts Higher Ahead Of Budget Bill
Sep-17 16:09
Bloomberg report small upward revisions to the government's GDP growth forecasts for 2026 and 2027:
- "*SWEDISH GOVT STILL SEES GDP GROWTH OF 0.9% IN 2025
- *SWEDISH GOVT SEES GDP GROWTH OF 3.1% IN 2026; SAW 3% IN AUG.
- *SWEDISH GOVT SEES GDP GROWTH OF 2.6% IN 2027; SAW 2.5% IN AUG.
- *SWEDISH GOVT UPDATES GROWTH FORECASTS IN WEBSITE STATEMENT" - bbg
It comes ahead of Monday's full presentation of the 2026 Budget Bill. See the MNI Preview published earlier today: https://media.marketnews.com/MNI_2026_Swedish_Budget_Preview_250917_d44c526621.pdf
US STOCKS: Midday Equities Roundup: DJIA Outperforms Ahead FOMC Policy Annc
Sep-17 16:05
- Stocks trade mixed ahead midday Wednesday, the DJIA outperforming weaker S&P emini and Nasdaq indexes, holding to generally narrow ranges in the leadup to the FOMC policy announcement at 1400ET.
- Currently, the DJIA trades up 319.32 points (0.7%) at 46078.41 (record high of 46137.20 on Sep 11), S&P E-Minis down 7.75 points (-0.12%) at 6659.75, Nasdaq down 118.5 points (-0.5%) at 22215.66.
- Information Technology and Communication Services sector shares underperformed in the first half: tech stocks under pressure after reports China authorities have banned the sale of Nvidia chips to top technology firms: Broadcom Inc -3.50%, Western Digital -2.95%, Palantir Technologies -2.94%, NVIDIA -2.72% and Oracle -2.66%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares weighted on the Communication Services sector: Warner Bros Discovery -1.37%, Alphabet -1.33%, Meta Platforms -1.03% and Live Nation Entertainment -0.67%.
- On the positive side, Financial and Consumer Staples shares led gainers in the first half, banks and services stocks buoyed the former: American Express +2.57%, US Bancorp +2.31%, MSCI +2.19%, Citizens Financial +2.07%, W R Berkley +2.02% and Global Payments +1.91%.
- Meanwhile, retail sellers held modest gains Dollar Tree +3.04%, Walmart +1.95%, Kenvue +1.93%, J M Smucker +1.67% and Brown-Forman +1.50%.
SOFR OPTIONS: Midcurve SOFR BLOCK Update, Separate Oct'25 calls
Sep-17 15:34
Two-way call flow ahead midday as underlying futures inching lower. Projected rate cut pricing cools slightly vs. early morning levels (*): Sep'25 at -25.8bp (-27.1bp), Oct'25 at -45.1bp (-46.4bp), Dec'25 at -67.2bp (-69.1bp), Jan'26 at -80.6bp (-82.9bp).
- +20,000 SFRV5 96.50 calls, 2.25 vs. 96.345/0.20%
- Block/screen -75,000 0QZ5 97.00/97.25 call spds, 10.0
