FOREX: USD Rallies, GBPUSD Extending Lower as Trendline Breaks Monitored

Sep-25 12:42
  • Stronger US data across the board has prompted a solid bump higher for the greenback, with the USD index extending to fresh recovery highs in the aftermath. USDJPY has rallied around 35 pips to rise above the September 03 high, which was located at 149.14
  • Additionally, EURUSD is now back below the Monday lows and pressing towards the 1.1700 mark. Support to watch is 1.1680. the 50-day EMA.
  • GBP (-0.42%) continues to trade with an offered tone, underperforming peers on the session. Downside momentum for GBPUSD is gaining traction following the breach of two trendline supports, with the latest US data exacerbating this short-term trend.
  • Trendlines drawn from both the Aug 1 low and the January lows have been broken, and a daily close at current levels would strengthen the bearish theme for the pair. The latest developments signal scope for a move towards 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support. Below here, a key medium-term support is at 1.3140.
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Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

Historical bullets

US TSYS: Post-Data React

Aug-26 12:34
  • Treasury futures pare gains after higher than expected Durable/Cap Goods Orders, Philadelphia Fed Non-Mfg Activity declines.
  • Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures currently trades +1.5 at 112-00.5 vs. 112-03 high. Sights are on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-23 initially, the May 1 high.
  • Curves twist steeper: 2s10s +2.367 at 57.312, 5s30s +4.066 at 114.350.
  • Little react in US$ after scaling back Monday's late gain, BBDXY -2.76 at 1204.85.

GILTS: Roll Pace Update

Aug-26 12:33
  • A decent clip in the Gilt spread, ~20k trades on legs at 3.
  • The spread has mostly been bought, but remains in its tight 1/5 low/range seen in the past 11 sessions.
  • Gilt roll Pace is at 82% completion, and expect for the December to be front Month by the end of day, or at the very least Tomorrow.

MNI: US AUG PHILADELPHIA FED NONMFG INDEX -17.5

Aug-26 12:31
  • MNI: US AUG PHILADELPHIA FED NONMFG INDEX -17.5