FOREX: USD Index Tops Trendline; Surprise Norway Cut Hits NOK
Jun-19 09:30
- NOK is sliding against all others in G10 on the back of a surprise 25bps rate cut from the Norwegian central bank. The decision itself was coupled by a larger-than-forecast downward revision to the MPR rate path, adding additional pressure to the currency. EURNOK rallied to meet resistance at the 50-day EMA of 11.5921, but has faded somewhat toward the NY crossover.
- The greenback is furtively firmer against all others in G10, helping the USD Index edge to new weekly highs headed through the European open. Much of this USD strength being based off renewed geopolitical risk on the building expectation that US officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran "in the coming days" - a move that could prompt retaliation against US assets in the region.
- What's notable about this USD rally is that it's triggered a bullish signal for the DXY via a break and possible close above the downtrendline drawn off the early February high. This trendline has helped define the dollar weakness across Trump's administration, and this week's move raises the risk of a correction higher in the near-term.
- Following USDJPY's initial drop on the FOMC's unchanged median dot for 2025, the pair once again found decent demand in the 1.4435/40 area. Subsequently, USDJPY has traded steadily higher towards the top end of the recent range, narrowing the gap to last week's highs at 145.46, a level that continues to cap the topside this week.
- This puts the 50-dma into contention at 99.512, with the 23.6% retracement above at 100.50. Outside of the USD Index, Antipodean currencies look particularly prone to a possible correction lower: NZD/USD has broken back below 0.60, while AUD/USD has met support at 0.6461, the uptrendline drawn off the mid-May low.
- The Bank of England rate decision is up next, with markets expecting no change from the MPC today. The vote split will be of market interest in addition to the use of language around "cautious" and "gradual" descriptors for the easing cycle.
- US data are few and far between Thursday, with the US on market holiday for Juneteenth.
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FOREX: AUD Slips as RBA Considered Jumbo Rate Cut
May-20 09:28
- AUD is slipping against all others in G10 following the RBA rate cut to 3.85%. While the rate cut itself was expected, Bullock's more assertive language on easing ahead has pressured the front-end of the curve. The RBA disclosed that a 'jumbo' rate cut of 50bps was discussed - signaling the bank's approach to inflation is less restrictive than expected. As a result, AUD/USD has retreated away from any test of the 200-dma of 0.6452, reverting to the lower-end of the recent range in the pair.
- An uptick in oil prices has helped support commodity-tied currencies. Comments from Iran's Khamenei talked down the prospects of progress with the US in nuclear negotiations. Khamenei stated he does not believe talks with the US will yield any results - supporting Brent crude to briefly trade back to yesterday's highs. As a result, NOK is outperforming most others in G10.
- Broad EUR and GBP strength that played out across Monday has faded somewhat, however GBP/USD remains well toward the upper-end of the week's range. GBP/USD holds above 1.3350, but is yet to make any material challenge on the weekly high of 1.3404.
- Canadian CPI for April is the data highlight Tuesday, at which markets look for Y/Y CPI to slow to 1.6% from 2.3% previously. The Atlanta Fed's financial markets conference continues, while appearances are also due from Fed's Bostic, Barkin, Collins, Musalem and Kugler. Knot & Cipollone represent the ECB.
BONDS: Long-end Gilts Outperform Bunds Despite 30-year Syndi
May-20 09:25
German and UK yields are biased lower this morning, with the German curve lightly bull steepening and the Gilt curve bull flattening. Those dynamics come despite today’s syndicated launch of the new 5.375% Jan-56 gilt. Books are now closed and final terms have been set for the syndication, with the GBP4bln size smaller than MNI's expectations.
- The 10-year Gilt/Bund spread has tightened 2bps to 205.5bps this morning, but there hasn’t been an overt driver of the UK outperformance.
- The reaction to UK Chief Economist Pill’s opening remarks was relatively contained. Although Pill thinks the MPC started easing too early, he viewed May as the appropriate moment for a skip and seems to still broadly support quarterly cuts going forward.
- In the EGB space, Germany will sell green Bunds at 1030BST while Finland will issue RFGBs at 1100BST.
- Bund futures are +4 ticks at 130.58, off earlier session highs of 130.75. Gilt futures are +30 at 91.80, from a high of 91.91.
- Following a record high merchandise trade surplus ahead of US Liberation Day, the Eurozone seasonally adjusted current account surplus rose to E50.9bln in March (vs an upwardly revised E40.6bln prior). German April PPI was weaker-than-expected, but more interest will be in the flash Eurozone May consumer confidence reading at 1500BST.
- In the UK, focus remains on tomorrow’s April CPI report. MNI’s preview will be released later this morning.
GILT SYNDICATION: 5.375% Jan-56 gilt: Final terms
May-20 09:21
- Size: GBP4.0bln (smaller than MNI expected - that's the average size in the DMO's funding plan with no upsizing)
- Books closed in excess of GBP74bln pre-rec (inc JLM interest of GBP3.75bln)
- Spread set: 4.25% Dec-55 gilt (GB00BT7J0241) + 1.75bp (guidance was 1.75bp/2.25bp)
- ISIN: GB00BT7J0241
- JLMs: BNP Paribas, BofA Securities, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs International Bank (B&D / DM) and Santander
- Settlement: 21 May 2025 (T+1)
- Maturity: 31 January 2056
- Coupon: 5.375%. Short first
- Timing: Allocations to follow
From market source / MNI colour
