FOREX: USD Index Hovers Above Cycle Lows as Fed Decision Approaches

A slate of recent polls show that Americans are increasingly likely to support Ukraine, reversing a longer-term trend. A University of Maryland Critical Issues poll “found that support for Ukraine among the American public is at its highest since early 2023.”

• The survey report notes: “Americans remain overwhelmingly more sympathetic to Ukraine than to Russia, with a marked increase in sympathy Republicans feel toward Ukraine since March.”
• A Chicago Council on Global Affairs poll, taken shortly before the Trump-Putin summit in Alaska, found that the American public, “support for sending military and economic aid to Ukraine has increased since March—especially among Republican Party supporters. These changes in GOP opinion could reflect Trump’s recently shifting policies and rhetoric and Trump’s own growing frustration with Putin’s “tapping him along.”
• A Pew Research Center survey found that 50% of Americans now say the US has a duty to help Ukraine, with Republican support rising to 35% from a low of just over 20% in March.

Figure 1: Share of Americans who say the US has a Duty to support Ukraine

Source: Semafor, Pew Research Center

Note Fed VC Bowman interview on Bbg that was scheduled for this afternoon has been moved to Tuesday morning.

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
• 08/19 0830 Housing Starts (1.321M, 1.300M), MoM (4.6%, -1.6%)
• 08/19 0830 Building Permits (1.393M, 1.388M), MoM (-0.1%, -0.4%)
• 08/19 1000 Fed VC Bowman interview on Bbg TV
• 08/19 1130 US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction
• 08/19 1410 Fed VC Bowman blockchain symposium, WY
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 08/18 $2B #Charter Communications $1.25B 10Y +152, $750M 30Y +177
• 08/18 $1.5B #Marriott Intl $400M 2Y +47, $500M 6Y +85, $600M 10Y +105
• 08/18 $1B #Corebridge Global $500M 3Y +58, $500M 7Y +88
• 08/18 $800M #Northwestern Mutual $500M 3Y +40, $300M 3Y SOFR+66
• 08/18 $500M #Ecolab WNG 10Y +67
• 08/18 $Benchmark DBJ 3Y SOFR+52
• 08/18 $Benchmark RGA Global 3Y +90a, 7Y +120a
• 08/18 $Benchmark McDonald's +5Y +80a, +10Y +100a
• 08/18 $Benchmark Eli Lilly 3Y +28, 3Y SOFR+53, +5Y +40, 7Y +48, 10Y +57, 30Y +65, 40Y +73