FOREX: USD Index Extends to Recovery Highs, EURUSD Back Below 1.16
Jul-16 13:34
- The modest dip lower for the greenback on the release of US PPI figures was well absorbed by the market, and the most recent stronger-than-expected IP data has helped propel the Dollar Index to the best levels of the session and fresh recovery highs.
- Latest price action concurrently sees EURUSD reach pullback lows, extending its recent downswing to print 1.1579 in recent minutes. This shifts the focus to the 50-day exponential moving average, intersecting just above the 1.15 handle. A clear break of the average is required to highlight a stronger reversal of the underlying trend.
- Underperforming on the session is the Swiss Franc, with USDCHF currently 0.4% higher on Wednesday and narrowing the gap to initial resistance at 0.8056, the June 13 low.
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EQUITIES: US Cash Opening Calls
Jun-16 13:26
SPX: 6,021.6 (+0.7%); DJIA: 42,458 (+0.6%/+261pts); NDX: 21,830.9 (+0.9%).
BONDS: Off Lows As Oil Ticks Lower
Jun-16 13:24
A steady downtick in crude oil futures through the London morning into early NY trade initially allowed core global FI markets to base and has limited any selling pressure in the time since.
- Brent & WTI trade a little over $1 lower on the day after Friday highs capped the opening spike higher that came on the back of the weekend Israel-Iran escalation.
- While Israel-Iran commentary remains relatively hardline, there has been a lack of meaningful escalation since the London open, weighing on crude in that window.
- Core global bond curves hold steeper on the day (some twist, some bear) with major traded inflation metrics (5y5y and 2-Year zero coupon swaps) mostly back to unchanged on the day, with cues from oil dominating in the latter as well.
US DATA: CARTS Points To Pickup In Ex-Auto Retail Sales
Jun-16 13:23
The Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS)'s final release for May out this morning projects that retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles & parts (ex. auto) rose 0.3% M/M (SA) in the month.
- While CARTS's ability to forecast previous months has been mixed, their May estimate is in line with analyst consensus for Census Bureau ex-auto retail sales to rise 0.2% in May (after 0.1% in April) in Tuesday's print.
- CARTS estimates ex-auto retail sales rose even faster when adjusted for inflation: 0.4% (the price level for this basket dipped very slightly in May vs April).
- We'll publish a wider preview of Tuesday's retail sales release later today.
