FOREX: USD Index Extends Bounce as Chair Powell Awaited Friday
Aug-21 16:29
- Higher US yields in the aftermath of the stronger-than-expected US PMI data have helped propel USDJPY (+0.70%) comfortably back above the 148.00 handle on Thursday, taking the pair to a fresh weekly high.
- Above here, firm resistance to watch is at 148.52, the Aug 12 high, of which a breach would be viewed as a short-term bullish signal. The August 01 high at 150.92 remains key resistance. In terms of support, the August 14 low at 146.21 is the first notable level.
- A more stable session for equities has helped AUD and NZD to relatively outperform on Thursday, placing greater pressure on the likes of EUR and GBP, which have slipped in line with the USD index adjustment.
- For EURUSD, this has translated into weekly printed lows at 1.16, and further pressure being placed on 50-day EMA support. The average now intersects at 1.1591, and a clear break would threaten the underlying bullish trend structure, signalling scope for a deeper retracement towards key support at 1.1392, the Aug 1 low.
- In similar vein, GBPUSD looks set to extend its losing streak to four consecutive sessions, narrowing the gap to the August 11 low at 1.3400. Today’s price action looks set to confirm a break of the 50-day EMA, confirming the likely potential for a technical reversal.
- Downside in EURNOK (-0.86%) has persisted through the afternoon, which sees the cross down 0.8% today and testing key support at the 50-day EMA of 11.8298. Clearance of this level would expose the July 30 low at 11.7460
- Japan National CPI data is scheduled Friday before the global focus turns to Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. UK and Canada retail sales data are also scheduled.
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BONDS: EGBs-GILTS CASH CLOSE: Bull Flattening Move Continues
Jul-22 16:24
The bull flattening move in EGBs and Gilts continued for a second session Tuesday.
- Once again, there was no single trigger for the bullish move in global core FI which overall looked like a continuation move from Monday's constructive session.
- Some pointed to the rally in Treasuries as spilling over into the European space. The biggest move of the day coincided with US Treasury Secretary Bessent's suggestion that there was no reason for Fed Chair Powell to leave office before the end of his term in 2026, helping US long-end yields lower.
- In data, UK public sector net borrowing was higher than expected, while the ECB's Q2 Bank Lending Survey saw credit demand from firms pick up but overall momentum remaining weak.
- As noted, both the UK and German curves bull flattened on the day, with Gilts slightly outperforming.
- Periphery / semi-core EGB spreads were mixed, with BTPs underperforming and OATs outperforming.
- Wednesday's calendar includes Eurozone consumer confidence data but the week's focus remains the ECB decision Thursday.
- MNI's ECB preview has been published (PDF here) - alongside the expected hold, this week’s communication is expected to be as non-committal as possible, maintaining flexibility and buying time for a fresh forecast round in time for the Sep 11 meeting. The balance of risks will be important in determining any market reaction.
Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany
- Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.2bps at 1.812%, 5-Yr is down 1.6bps at 2.152%, 10-Yr is down 2.3bps at 2.59%, and 30-Yr is down 2.2bps at 3.117%.
- UK: The 2-Yr yield is down 2.7bps at 3.842%, 5-Yr is down 3.8bps at 3.997%, 10-Yr is down 3.4bps at 4.569%, and 30-Yr is down 2.8bps at 5.4%.
- Italian BTP spread up 0.7bps at 84.4bps / French OAT down 0.3bps at 67.6bps
US: Trump Administration Considering No Tax On Home Sales Capital Gains
Jul-22 16:09
In continued media Q&A from the Bilateral Meeting with Trump and the President of the Philippines.
- Reporter: There’s no tax on tips, overtime or social security. How important is it to have no tax on home sales capital gains to unleash the housing market in this country?
- Trump: We’re thinking about that. We’d also unleash you just by lowering the interest rates. If the Fed would lower the rates we wouldn’t even have to do that. We are thinking about no tax on capital gains on houses. I’m very impressed you asked that question because nobody knew that. How did you find that out?
FED: US TSY TO SELL $85.000 BLN 8W BILL JUL 24, SETTLE JUL 29
Jul-22 16:05
- US TSY TO SELL $85.000 BLN 8W BILL JUL 24, SETTLE JUL 29
