FOREX: USD Index Creeps to New Daily Highs as Participation Finally Picks Up

Feb-19 10:20

Greenback strength continues to show in recent trade - dragging EUR/USD further off the recovery high posted last week at 1.0514. Move looks isolated from broader risk given the USD's gradual strengthening alongside equities since the beginning of the week, however the very recent drift to session lows for the EuroStoxx future (which hit an alltime high yesterday) could be adding some conviction here.

  • For the ICE USD Index, price has bumped back above 107.00 meaning markets have steered clear of a test on the uptrending 100-dma of 106.396. This leaves 107.838 as the next notable intraday level: the 38.2% retracement for the downleg posted off the early February high.
  • Volumes were understandably light on Monday (US Presidents' Day) but the muted theme extended into Tuesday and it's only today that we're seeing markets return to form: EUR futures have seen a decent pick up in interest both at the open today and throughout the morning - with focus now shifting to the FOMC minutes due later today.

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: EU Bank Synth Option

Jan-20 10:19

SX7E (21/12/29) 160, Bought the call for 18.15 in 10k (100% del).

EURIBOR OPTIONS: Call spread vs put spread trades for more

Jan-20 10:15

ERM5 97.4375/97.3125ps vs 97.9375/98.0625cs, bought the cs for 2.25 in 14k total now.

BONDS: Bund edges toward Friday's low

Jan-20 10:13
  • The lighter liquidity seems to exacerbate some of the early small moves in Govies, Bund is drifting back towards Friday's low.
  • Earlier small block trade and paying interest has seen the contract finding some selling interest.
    Initial support for the Bund is at 131.50.
  • And despite the Lower Euribor Fix, the front ERH5 as well as the rest of the strip are testing their respective lows.
  • The latest flows in Govies saw a 1.5k seller in OAT and 1k in Gilt, all cumulative Volume.