FOREX: USD Bounces on Phase of Stocks Weakness
Phase of weakness in stocks works in favour of the dollar - helping press GBP/USD through 1.3545 lows to further erase the post-weekly claims data rally in the pair.
- USD/JPY remains a standout after the opinion polling showing Takaichi in the lead to take over the leadership of the LDP (and therefore PM role). Any rally through yesterday's highs opens resistance into 148.58/149.14, the Sep 8/3 highs.
- The USD Index daily chart shows this rally is still contained below 97.944, the 50% retracement for the downleg posted off the early September highs.
- FX volumes are healthy: Z5 EUR futures have posted close to 30k contracts, while JPY futures are seeing notable interest: and already aren't far off meeting the cumulative total volume from Thursday.
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY - Large in the EUR Thursday
Of note:
EURUSD 2.24bn at 1.1700/1.1710.
USDJPY 1.06bn at 147.00.
EURUSD 6.62bn at 1.1695/1.1725 (thu).
AUDUSD 1.25bn at 0.6600 (thu).
- EURUSD: 1.1650 (833mln), 1.1700 (1.46bn), 1.1705 (382mln), 1.1710 (397mln).
- USDJPY: 146.75 (570mln), 146.85 (752mln), 147.00 (1.06bn), 147.50 (263mln).
- GBPUSD: 1.3510 (471mln), 1.3540 (203mln), 1.3550 (317mln).
- USDCAD: 1.3725 (555mln), 1.3835 (417mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6550 (597mln), 0.6575 (747mln).
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Holds Ground
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5
- PRICE: 112-00 @ 08:36 BST Aug 13
- SUP 1: 110-19+/08+ Low Jul 24 / Low Jul 14 & 16
- SUP 2: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 3: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
- SUP 4: 109.25 Low May 27
Treasury futures spiked sharply on the CPI print, hitting 112-06 before fading into the close. Despite the intraday reversal off highs, the bullish theme persists, supported by the clearance of the bull trigger at 112-12+, the Jul 1 high, on the NFP reaction. Prices remain toward the upper-end of the range, keeping the May 1 high at 112-23, the next upside level. Clearance here opens retracement levels layered between 113-07 and 113-23. On the downside, key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. First support lies at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low.
USD: Cable Breaks Yesterday's high
- The Kiwi has taken over the SEK as the early best performer against the Greenback within G10 Currencies, now half a percent up, and looking to break back above 0.6000, with small resistance seen at 0.6011.
- The Pound might not be the best performer for Today, but it is up 1.41% for the past 5 days and leading, has broken above yesterday's high, and Market Participants will now be watching for the next resistance at 1.3589 High Jul 24.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg Finance LP).
